What is the basis for even considering teams ranked 3 through 8 or 16 in the NCAA Football National Championship mix? Are there really 16 teams or even 8 teams who persevere each year who are worthy to be THE NATIONAL CHAMPION?
This round, arguments don’t count. Throw opinions to the wind, and logic alone isn’t sufficient. Only facts which support considering teams ranked 3 through 8 or 16 for the Football National Championship will work here and then interpretation of them is fair.
Unless there’s some altruistic purpose in expansive inclusion of football teams, the ultimate goal of any bracket ought to be making it large enough to include eventual No. 1 and No. 2 teams — within reason.
FOR THE 30 YEARS PRIOR TO THE BCS, from the A.P. Poll:
16 teams who were No. 1 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
7 teams who were No. 2 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
5 teams who were No. 3 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
0 teams who were No. 4 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
2 teams who were No. 5 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games.
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The historical week-by-week polls for the AP are online at appollarchive.com
………..A.P.Final………..End of………………………..End of
………….No. 1…………Reg.Seas……..No..2………Reg. Seas.
2008….Florida……………1…………..Utah……………..7
2007….LSU……………….2…………..Georgia………….4
2006….Florida……………2…………..Ohio St………….1
2005….Texas…………….2…………..USC………………1
2004….USC………………1…………..Auburn…………..3
2003….USC………………1…………..LSU……………….2
2002….Ohio St…………..2…………..Miami……………1
2001….Miami…………….1…………..Oregon………….2
2000….Oklahoma……….1…………..Miami……………2
1999….Florida St………..1………….Va Tech…………2
1998…Tennessee….,…..1………….Ohio St………….3
BCS Begins
1997….Michigan………..1…………..Nebraska…………2
1996….Florida………….3……………Ohio St…………..4
1995….Nebraska……….1…………..Florida…………….2
1994….Nebraska……….1…………..Penn St…………..2
1993….Florida St………1……………Notre Dame……..4
1992….Alabama………..2…………..Florida St………..3
1991….Miami……………1…………..Washington……..2
1990….Colorado………..1…………..GA Tech………….2
1989….Miami……………2…………..Notre Dame……..4
1988….Notre Dame……1…………..Miami……………..2
1987….Miami……………2…………..Florida St………..3
1986….Penn St…………2…………..Miami……………..1
1985….Oklahoma………3…………..Michigan………….5
1984….BYU………………1…………..Washington……..4
1983….Miami……………5…………..Nebraska…………1
1982….Penn St…………2…………..SMU……………….4
1981….Clemson………..1…………..Texas……………..6
1980….Georgia…………1…………..Pittsburgh………..3
1979….Alabama………..2…………..USC……………….3
1978….Alabama………..2…………..USC……………….3
1977….Notre Dame……5…………..Alabama………….3
1976….Pittsburgh………1…………..USC……………….3
1975….Oklahoma………3…………..Arizona St………..7
1974….Oklahoma………1………….USC………………..5
1973….Notre Dame……3…………..Ohio St……………4
1972….USC……………..1…………..Oklahoma………..2
1971….Nebraska……….1………….Oklahoma…………3
1970….Nebraska………3…………..Notre Dame………6
1969….Texas…………..1…………..Penn St……………2
1968….Ohio St…………1…………..Penn St……………3
1968 was chosen because the Press changed the time of voting to AFTER the College Bowl Games.
FOR THE 22 YEARS PRIOR TO THE BCS, from the Coaches’ Poll:
……..Coaches’ Final……End of………………………..End of
………….No. 1…………Reg.Seas……..No..2………Reg. Seas.
2008……Florida…………..2…………..USC…………..4
2007……LSU………………2…………..USC…………..6
2006……Florida…………..2…………..Ohio St………1
2005……Texas……………2…………..USC…………..1
2004……USC……………..1…………..Auburn……….3
2003……LSU………………2…………..USC…………..1
2002……Ohio St………….2…………..Miami………..1
2001……Miami……………1…………..Oregon………3
2000……Oklahoma………1…………..Miami…………2
1999……Florida St……….1…………..Nebraska……3
1998…..Tennessee………1…………..Ohio St………3
BCS Begins
1997…..Nebraska………2…………..Michigan……….1
1996…..Florida…………3…………..Ohio St…………4
1995…..Nebraska………1…………..TN………………4
1994…..Nebraska………1…………..Penn St………..2
1993…..Florida St………3…………..Notre Dame…..4
1992…..Alabama……….2…………..FL St……………4
1991…..Washington……1…………..Miami………….2
1990…..Georgia Tech….2………….Colorado……….1
1989…..Miami…………..2…………..FL St……………5
1988…..Notre Dame…..1…………..Miami…………..2
1987…..Miami…………..2…………..FL.St……………3
1986…..Penn St………..2…………..Miami…………..1
1985…..Oklahoma……..2…………..Michigan……….5
1984…..BYU…………….1…………..Washington……3
1983…..Miami………….4……………Nebraska………1
1982…..Penn St………..2…………..SMU…………….4
1981…..Clemson……….1…………..Pittsburgh……..8
1980…..Georgia………..1…………..Pittsburgh……..4
1979…..Alabama……….1…………..USC…………….2
1978…..USC…………….3…………..Alabama……….2
1977…..Notre Dame…..5…………..Alabama……….3
1976…..Pittsburgh……..1…………..USC…………….3
9 teams who were No. 1 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
7 teams who were No. 2 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
3 teams who were No. 3 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
1 team who was No. 4 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games,
1 team who was No. 5 at the end of the regular season were No. 1 after the bowl games.
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The end-of-season rankings available for this post ended in 1976; however, only 2 more years would have been included in any event because the Coaches began voting AFTER the bowl games in 1974.
The reality is that regardless of conference affiliation, school size, “media bias,” “coaches’ bias,” or money, WITHOUT THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE BCS, ONLY TWO TEAMS RANKED HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS NO. 3 AT THE END OF THE REGULAR SEASON HAVE EVER BEEN DECLARED NATIONAL CHAMPIONS in either the Associated Press or the Coaches’ Polls.
Ranked No. 4 by the U.P.I. and No. 5 by the A.P. at the end of the regular season, the 1983 Miami Hurricanes vaulted to No. 1 by defeating then No. 1 Nebraska 31-30 as No. 2 Texas lost to Georgia in the Cotton Bowl, No. 3 Auburn won 9-7 over No. 8 Michigan, and No. 4 Illinois lost 45-9 to UCLA. ( For 1983 A.P. regular season poll and Others referred to here and Wikipedia for general Bowl Referenceand December 6, 1983, Arkansas Gazette.)
In 1977 the Irish and Joe Montana walloped No. 1 Texas 38-10 and from the opening kickoff my No. 6 Arkansas Razorbacks smashed No. 2 Oklahoma 31-6. No. 3 Alabama’s effort in beating No. 8 Ohio State 35-6 wasn’t enough while No. 4 Michigan lost in the Rose Bowl to No. 13 Washington 27-20. ( Wikipedia 1977 College Football Season)
Jacob London of Hog Database previewed some of this post. [Hog Database has asked that I post my entries on their site as well which I’m gladly permitting because it is the easiest, most expansive and precise filter I’ve seen for data on any sports site, period.] Jacob posed a question which is worthy to address.
What is the lowest end-of-regular-season rank for a team finishing No. 2 at the end of the year?
For No. 2s, from 2008 back to 1968, inclusive, from the A.P. Poll:
2008…..Utah…………..7
1975…..AZ St………….7 (in WAC)
1981…..Texas…………6
1970…..Notre Dame…6
1985…..Michigan……..5
1974…..USC…………..5
All other No. 2s back to 1968 were either 1, 2, 3 or 4.
For No. 2s, from 2008 back to 1976, inclusive, from the Coaches’ Poll:
1981….Pittsburgh……..8
2007….USC…………….6
1989….Florida St……..5
1985….Michigan………5
In 1974 the Coaches’ Poll began refusing to rank any team on probation. In 1981 SMU and Miami were on probation which is part of the reason for Pittsburg’s jump to No. 2 from No. 8 in addition to three teams above Pitt losing.
For 22% of the years a team has made the jump from outside the top 4 up to No. 2 in the AP poll or the Coaches’ Poll within the rankings which are available. A top 4 playoff would cover 78% of the years historically. But that’s as good as the numbers get.
Overall, from the perspective of the numbers of poll positions between Nos. 5 through 8, inclusive, 296 (41AP*4, 33Ch*4) slots exist for all of the years available for both Polls. 10 schools in the end-of-regular-season rankings of No.5 through No. 8 over the last 41 years of available data before the bowl games became eventual No. 2 teams. 2 schools became eventual No. 1 teams.
4.4% of the positions (13 of 296 – the two number No. 1 teams held 3, 5-8 spots, not 2) made it to No. 1 or No. 2.
Within reason, little historical justification exists for creating a regular bracket beyond 4 teams for College Football, as compared to 8 or 16.
An Olive Branch and Creative Little Idea
I continue to be somewhat bothered by a good percentage of those who will find any BCS game outside of the bracket games as “meaningless” especially since there could be as many as three additional BCS Bowls beyond a traditional four team bracket. There’s got to be another way.
When I considered the rankings above and looked at 1983, 1981, and 1977, a thought came to mind. It’s probably not an original idea, but I’ve never seen it utilized anywhere.
It’s what I call the “Collapsing Bracket.” The Collapsing Bracket would have the potential of keeping people in their seats all day long for four BCS Bowl Games and then the National Championship.
From my last post, I would have all BCS Games played on January 1 and the National Championship Game played on the second Saturday in January. For this idea, the Cotton would be elevated, but the National Championship Game rotates among the BCS Bowls making only eight BCS slots available.
These games would be played in the following order:
BCS #4 v. BCS #8
BCS #3 v. BCS #7
BCS #2 v. BCS #6
BCS #1 v. BCS #5
The Top Two Seeds at the end of the day would advance to the BCS National Championship Game. Ultimately Nos. 7 and 8 can only be spoilers.
If No. 4 wins, its fans want help from two of Nos. 7, 6 and 5.
If No. 3 wins, its fans want help from Nos. 6 or 5.
Fans from No. 5 and 6 are cheering on Nos. 7 and 8 while fans from 3 and 4 are cheering on Nos. 5 and 6.
Nos. 1 and 2 only need to win, but losses by Nos. 3 and 4 would mean that Nos. 5 and 6 are playing for a berth in the National Championship Game! There’s some incentive!
Nos. 1 and 2 fans are rooting, “us against the world.” Because they don’t know who they’ll play, they’ll want to watch Nos. 3 and 4.
No. 2s fans will and cheer for Nos. 3 and 4 so that No. 6 is only playing for pride. No. 1s fans will want the best chance of winning so they want No. 4 to win and Nos. 2 and 3 to lose.
No. 5 needs to win against No. 1 and for two of Nos. 2, 3 or 4 to lose to play for the National Championship.
No. 6 has to have losses by Nos. 1, 2, 3, and 4 to make it to the BCS National Championship.
The teams would no longer have the easier road based upon rank, and the drama would continue until the last game is played.
The Collapsing Bracket just seems deviously fun!
Note: Please let me know if you can find week-by-week Coaches’ Poll online prior to the BCS.
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