College Football Champion Index Week 7

This week brings the first College Football Champion Index™ head-to-head comparison with the BCS Poll and introduces a modified CFCI Ranking System. An explanation of the CFCI Original Ranking is found in the links below with the key to understanding it being that all teams are treated equally in the CFCI Original Ranking and that it’s designed to work itself out over the course of a season. Currently the CFCI Original Rankings include 19 of the AP Top 25 Poll with five of the six different schools (Arkansas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Arizona St.) looming between 26 and 35 in the CFCI Original. Although having only one loss, the Arkansas Razorbacks are the biggest difference between the CFCI and either the AP Top 25 or the BCS. In large part Arkansas’s statistical defensive performances are to blame in addition to losing some ground because of an off week in the categories which consider performances over the course of a season. As against the BCS, the CFCI Original includes 20 of the 25 same schools. Both the CFCI and BCS include Penn St. which is omitted from the AP Top 25 Poll. Three of the five differences between the two are found in schools ranked 26 through 35 in the CFCI Original (Arkansas, Georgia and Texas A&M), but expanded CFCI rankings don’t include either Texas or Auburn. Both schools have two losses while Texas’ defensive rankings were pummeled over the last two weeks by the collective 93 points racked up by Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Auburn suffers on both sides of the ball from giving up more than 34 points in 3 games this year while scoring no more than 17 points in 3 games this season.

Head-to-Head between Alabama and LSU, the Tide hold slight advantages statistically in the Passing First Downs component of Total First Downs by Season, Pass Efficiency Defense, Scoring Offense, Sacks by Season, and Passing Offense. LSU holds small advantages over Alabama in Passing Efficiency Offense and Turnover Margin. The overall difference after every category is measured is only fourteen-thousandths of a point. The difference in the opinion polls likely comes from LSU’s victories over 4 Top 25 teams as opposed to Alabama’s 3.

College Football Champion Index Original™ Week 7

Performance Rank	CFCI Week 7	Performance	Elimination	Elimination Rank
1	Alabama	0.970	0.970	1
2	LSU	0.956	0.956	2
3	Wisconsin	0.948	0.948	3
4	Boise St.	0.936	0.936	4
6	Stanford	0.925	0.925	5
7	Oklahoma	0.922	0.922	6
11	Clemson	0.871	0.871	7
18	Houston	0.856	0.856	8
28	Oklahoma St.	0.832	0.832	9
31	Kansas St.	0.826	0.826	10
5	Cincinnati	0.931	0.621	11
9	Virginia Tech	0.910	0.607	12
10	Illinois	0.893	0.595	13
12	Michigan St.	0.870	0.580	14
15	Penn St.	0.861	0.574	15
22	Oregon	0.853	0.569	16
23	Michigan	0.853	0.569	17
24	South Carolina	0.850	0.567	18
26	Georgia Tech	0.848	0.565	19
27	Southern Miss.	0.835	0.556	20
34	Washington	0.819	0.546	21
38	West Virginia	0.810	0.540	22
41	Rutgers	0.807	0.538	23
56	La.-Lafayette	0.771	0.514	24
57	SMU	0.769	0.513	25
62	Nebraska	0.763	0.509	26
66	Arkansas	0.759	0.506	27
8	Temple	0.920	0.460	28
13	South Fla.	0.866	0.433	29
17	TCU	0.856	0.428	30
19	Georgia	0.855	0.428	31
20	Texas A&M	0.855	0.427	32
29	North Carolina	0.828	0.414	33
33	Notre Dame	0.824	0.412	34
35	Arizona St.	0.819	0.409	35
42	Baylor	0.806	0.403	36
43	FIU	0.805	0.403	37
44	Arkansas St.	0.802	0.401	38
45	Texas Tech	0.796	0.398	39
46	Iowa	0.796	0.398	40
54	Texas	0.774	0.387	41
55	Virginia	0.771	0.386	42
63	San Diego St.	0.762	0.381	43
67	Wyoming	0.757	0.379	44
70	Wake Forest	0.756	0.378	45
72	Auburn	0.755	0.377	46
76	Syracuse	0.734	0.367	47
78	BYU	0.718	0.359	48
14	Missouri	0.865	0.346	49
16	UCF	0.858	0.343	50
21	Ohio	0.854	0.341	51
25	Florida St.	0.849	0.339	52
32	Toledo	0.825	0.330	53
36	Ohio St.	0.816	0.326	54
37	Air Force	0.813	0.325	55
40	Northern Ill.	0.808	0.323	56
47	Utah	0.782	0.313	57
48	Miami (FL)	0.782	0.313	58
50	Hawaii	0.778	0.311	59
52	Purdue	0.776	0.311	60
53	Florida	0.776	0.310	61
58	Washington St.	0.768	0.307	62
59	North Carolina St.	0.768	0.307	63
60	Nevada	0.767	0.307	64
61	California	0.764	0.306	65
68	Tennessee	0.756	0.303	66
69	Western Mich.	0.756	0.303	67
79	New Mexico St.	0.718	0.287	68
83	Tulsa	0.708	0.283	69
87	Eastern Mich.	0.695	0.278	70
88	Ball St.	0.690	0.276	71
91	Colorado St.	0.681	0.272	72
92	UTEP	0.680	0.272	73
93	Duke	0.679	0.271	74
39	Mississippi St.	0.809	0.270	75
96	Vanderbilt	0.673	0.269	76
101	UCLA	0.662	0.265	77
49	Northwestern	0.779	0.260	78
51	Connecticut	0.778	0.259	79
109	Iowa St.	0.634	0.254	80
64	Louisville	0.761	0.254	81
65	Pittsburgh	0.759	0.253	82
71	Bowling Green	0.756	0.252	83
73	Louisiana Tech	0.752	0.251	84
74	Maryland	0.736	0.245	85
75	La.-Monroe	0.734	0.245	86
77	Navy	0.724	0.241	87
80	Kansas	0.715	0.238	88
81	Utah St.	0.714	0.238	89
82	Middle Tenn.	0.710	0.237	90
84	Fresno St.	0.701	0.234	91
85	Army	0.699	0.233	92
95	Rice	0.674	0.225	93
97	Marshall	0.670	0.223	94
98	San Jose St.	0.668	0.223	95
99	Miami (OH)	0.665	0.222	96
102	Western Ky.	0.661	0.220	97
106	Troy	0.651	0.217	98
107	East Carolina	0.650	0.217	99
111	Ole Miss	0.600	0.200	100
86	Tulane	0.696	0.199	101
89	North Texas	0.688	0.196	102
94	Buffalo	0.675	0.193	103
100	Oregon St.	0.663	0.190	104
104	Boston College	0.657	0.188	105
105	Arizona	0.654	0.187	106
120	Kentucky	0.549	0.183	107
108	Central Mich.	0.641	0.183	108
90	Colorado	0.686	0.171	109
113	Minnesota	0.591	0.169	110
103	Indiana	0.658	0.165	111
117	Akron	0.562	0.161	112
118	UNLV	0.558	0.159	113
110	Memphis	0.603	0.151	114
112	New Mexico	0.595	0.149	115
114	Idaho	0.581	0.145	116
115	Kent St.	0.569	0.142	117
116	Fla. Atlantic	0.563	0.141	118
119	UAB	0.557	0.139	119
30	Southern California	0.827	0.000	120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

In working with modifications to the CFCI, two things became evident. The first was that losses by some schools are treated worse than losses by others whether one looks at the AP Top 25 or the BCS Poll. It should be noted for those who don’t know that the AP Top 25 is not included in the BCS computation. The second issue is illustrated by Louisiana-Lafayette in the CFCI Original. Although it may work out over the course of the season, the Rajun Cajuns’ sole loss this season is to Oklahoma State by a score of 61-34. Through Week 7 the highest ranked CFCI opponent in the Elimination Index that La-Lafayette has beaten has been 98th ranked Troy. It makes little football common sense to place the Rajun Cajuns among the elite.

Believing that the CFCI has much going for it already, without the benefit of study (which will take some time) the logical way of tweaking the system was to take the observations above and see if they might be made to approximate the AP Top 25 and BCS Poll when the same math was applied to similarly-situated schools. In some manner it would bring human evaluation into the CFCI, and yes, it might be fairly said that the numbers are being manipulated within a framework to produce a result.

The easiest and first choice was to recognize and account for the difference between BCS and non-BCS Conference Schools when they lose. Adjustments were made by adding a slightly greater impact on the Elimination Index when non-BCS Conference team loses. But the change didn’t make a tremendous difference and specifically didn’t take a team like the Houston Cougars into account. At 6-0, Houston is worthy of some recognition but with the Cougars’ best victory over a CFCI 77th ranked UCLA, keying on losses wouldn’t make any fair adjustment.

The difference between BCS and non-BCS conferences was once again played upon. The idea here was to discount the Performance Score without making the hurdle insurmountable for a non-BCS Conference school. Two exceptions were made for schools who have cracked the BCS barrier recently and who are treated differently as is done in the real world. Neither Boise State nor TCU were tagged with the non-BCS reduction in Performance Scores. For Boise, its performance scores are great enough that it wouldn’t keep the school out of the CFCI’s Top 10 even if a reduction was applied. TCU has two losses and the losses alone would bring them down the list with or without a reduction in performance values.

Even applying those changes the net result didn’t change by much the number of CFCI-ranked teams in either the AP Top 25 or the BCS Polls. In other words, despite blatant changes applied across categories of teams, as long as all BCS Conference teams, with two noted exceptions, were treated the same, all the changes did to some extent was to substitute out one set of teams for another set of non-AP Top 25 or non-BCS Ranked teams. The sticking points came in the system’s evaluation of one-loss ACC and Big East teams. With BCS Conference teams such as Clemson, poll voters don’t appear to care that Clemson is in the ACC as long as it remains undefeated. For the CFCI, if a team doesn’t lose, its Performance Score is the same as its Elimination Score. One-loss ACC and Big East Teams, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in the ACC and Rutgers, Cincinnati and West Virginia in the Big East, collectively fair no better in either the AP or BCS Polls than a No. 11 West Virginia ranking while Rutgers and Cincinnati are in neither poll.

Please pardon the long path to the imperfect solution, but it’s a point worth noting. When Elimination Scores (i.e. accounting for losses) were calculated exactly the same way for ACC, Big East, and non-BCS Conference schools, the result is the Index below which more closely approximates the AP Top 25 and BCS Polls. With the tweaks as described, the CFCI Modified Index includes 23 of the 25 AP Top 25 Poll teams and 22 of the 25 BCS Poll Teams. In the end, non-BCS Conference Teams’ performances were were discounted and losses of non-BCS, ACC, and Big East Teams are slightly more harsh than for non-BCS teams. The results are some indication of how poll voters are behaving collectively regardless of whether they actually believe they are making those evaluations.

In the end, the CFCI Original Index is expected to include somewhere around 20-22 of the BCS and AP Top 25 Polls without the modifications.

College Football Champion Index Modified™ 7

Performance Rank	Modified CFCI Week 7	Performance	Elimination	Elimination Rank
1	Alabama	0.970	0.970	1
2	LSU	0.956	0.956	2
3	Wisconsin	0.948	0.948	3
4	Boise St.	0.936	0.936	4
6	Stanford	0.925	0.925	5
7	Oklahoma	0.922	0.922	6
10	Clemson	0.871	0.871	7
23	Oklahoma St.	0.832	0.832	8
26	Kansas St.	0.826	0.826	9
59	Houston	0.728	0.728	10
9	Illinois	0.893	0.714	11
11	Michigan St.	0.870	0.696	12
14	Penn St.	0.861	0.689	13
18	Oregon	0.853	0.683	14
19	Michigan	0.853	0.683	15
20	South Carolina	0.850	0.680	16
28	Washington	0.819	0.655	17
5	Cincinnati	0.931	0.621	18
49	Nebraska	0.763	0.611	19
52	Arkansas	0.759	0.607	20
8	Virginia Tech	0.910	0.607	21
16	Georgia	0.855	0.570	22
17	Texas A&M	0.855	0.570	22
22	Georgia Tech	0.848	0.565	24
29	Arizona St.	0.819	0.546	25
31	West Virginia	0.810	0.540	26
33	Rutgers	0.807	0.538	27
34	Baylor	0.806	0.537	28
35	Texas Tech	0.796	0.531	29
36	Iowa	0.796	0.531	30
44	Texas	0.774	0.516	31
55	Auburn	0.755	0.503	32
13	Missouri	0.865	0.494	33
62	Southern Miss.	0.709	0.473	34
30	Ohio St.	0.816	0.466	35
37	Utah	0.782	0.447	36
42	Purdue	0.776	0.444	37
43	Florida	0.776	0.443	38
46	Washington St.	0.768	0.439	39
76	La.-Lafayette	0.655	0.437	40
48	California	0.764	0.437	41
78	SMU	0.653	0.436	42
12	South Fla.	0.866	0.433	43
53	Tennessee	0.756	0.432	44
15	TCU	0.856	0.428	45
24	North Carolina	0.828	0.414	46
27	Notre Dame	0.824	0.412	47
32	Mississippi St.	0.809	0.405	48
39	Temple	0.782	0.391	49
40	Northwestern	0.779	0.390	50
45	Virginia	0.771	0.386	51
70	Vanderbilt	0.673	0.385	52
72	UCLA	0.662	0.379	53
54	Wake Forest	0.756	0.378	54
57	Syracuse	0.734	0.367	55
85	Iowa St.	0.634	0.362	56
61	Kansas	0.715	0.357	57
67	FIU	0.685	0.342	58
68	Arkansas St.	0.682	0.341	59
21	Florida St.	0.849	0.339	60
80	San Diego St.	0.647	0.324	61
81	Wyoming	0.644	0.322	62
38	Miami (FL)	0.782	0.313	63
47	North Carolina St.	0.768	0.307	64
88	BYU	0.611	0.305	65
93	Ole Miss	0.600	0.300	66
71	Oregon St.	0.663	0.295	67
58	UCF	0.730	0.292	68
77	Arizona	0.654	0.290	69
60	Ohio	0.726	0.290	70
63	Toledo	0.701	0.280	71
64	Air Force	0.691	0.277	72
111	Kentucky	0.549	0.275	73
65	Northern Ill.	0.686	0.275	74
66	Colorado	0.686	0.274	75
69	Duke	0.679	0.271	76
73	Hawaii	0.662	0.265	77
74	Indiana	0.658	0.263	78
97	Minnesota	0.591	0.263	79
79	Nevada	0.652	0.261	80
41	Connecticut	0.778	0.259	81
82	Western Mich.	0.643	0.257	82
50	Louisville	0.761	0.254	83
51	Pittsburgh	0.759	0.253	84
56	Maryland	0.736	0.245	85
89	New Mexico St.	0.611	0.244	86
92	Tulsa	0.602	0.241	87
98	Eastern Mich.	0.590	0.236	88
99	Ball St.	0.587	0.235	89
101	Colorado St.	0.579	0.231	90
102	UTEP	0.578	0.231	91
83	Bowling Green	0.642	0.214	92
84	Louisiana Tech	0.639	0.213	93
86	La.-Monroe	0.624	0.208	94
87	Navy	0.616	0.205	95
90	Utah St.	0.607	0.202	96
91	Middle Tenn.	0.603	0.201	97
94	Fresno St.	0.596	0.199	98
95	Army	0.594	0.198	99
104	Rice	0.573	0.191	100
105	Marshall	0.570	0.190	101
106	San Jose St.	0.568	0.189	102
107	Miami (OH)	0.565	0.188	103
75	Boston College	0.657	0.188	104
108	Western Ky.	0.562	0.187	105
109	Troy	0.554	0.185	106
110	East Carolina	0.553	0.184	107
96	Tulane	0.592	0.169	108
100	North Texas	0.584	0.167	109
103	Buffalo	0.574	0.164	110
112	Central Mich.	0.544	0.156	111
118	Akron	0.478	0.137	112
119	UNLV	0.474	0.136	113
113	Memphis	0.512	0.128	114
114	New Mexico	0.505	0.126	115
115	Idaho	0.494	0.124	116
116	Kent St.	0.484	0.121	117
117	Fla. Atlantic	0.478	0.120	118
120	UAB	0.473	0.118	119
25	Southern California	0.827	0.000	120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

 

CFCI v. AP Top 25 v. BCS Poll

CFCI Orig. Rk.	CFCI Original	CFCI Mod. Rk.	CFCI Modified	AP Top 25 Rk.	AP Top 25	BCS Rk.	BCS Poll
1	Alabama	1	Alabama	1	LSU	1	LSU
2	LSU	2	LSU	2	Alabama	2	Alabama
3	Wisconsin	3	Wisconsin	3	Oklahoma	3	Oklahoma
4	Boise St.	4	Boise St.	4	Wisconsin	4	Oklahoma St.
5	Stanford	5	Stanford	5	Boise State	5	Boise State
6	Oklahoma	6	Oklahoma	6	Oklahoma St.	6	Wisconsin
7	Clemson	7	Clemson	7	Stanford	7	Clemson
8	Houston	8	Oklahoma St.	8	Clemson	8	Stanford
9	Oklahoma St.	9	Kansas St.	9	Oregon	9	Arkansas
10	Kansas St.	10	Houston	10	Arkansas	10	Oregon
11	Cincinnati	11	Illinois	11	West Virginia	11	Kansas St.
12	Virginia Tech	12	Michigan St.	12	Kansas St.	12	Virginia Tech
13	Illinois	13	Penn St.	13	Nebraska	13	Nebraska
14	Michigan St.	14	Oregon	14	South Carolina	14	South Carolina
15	Penn St.	14	Michigan	15	Michigan St.	15	West Virginia
16	Oregon	16	South Carolina	16	Virginia Tech	16	Michigan St.
16	Michigan	17	Washington	17	Texas A&M	17	Texas A&M
18	South Carolina	18	Cincinnati	18	Michigan	18	Michigan
19	Georgia Tech	19	Nebraska	19	Auburn	19	Houston
20	Southern Miss.	20	Arkansas	20	Georgia Tech	20	Auburn
21	Washington	21	Virginia Tech	21	Houston	21	Penn State
22	West Virginia	22	Georgia	22	Washington	22	Georgia Tech
23	Rutgers	23	Texas A&M	23	Illinois	23	Illinois
24	La.-Lafayette	24	Georgia Tech	24	Georgia	24	Texas
25	SMU	25	Arizona St.	25	Arizona State	25	Washington

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.
College Football Championship Index Prior Weeks

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Unable to do Week 6.

Explanation of the College Football Champion Index