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You are here: Home / 2011 / October / 17 / College Football Champion Index Week 7

College Football Champion Index Week 7

By Sharp "Tusk" Williams on October 17, 2011

This week brings the first College Football Champion Index™ head-to-head comparison with the BCS Poll and introduces a modified CFCI Ranking System. An explanation of the CFCI Original Ranking is found in the links below with the key to understanding it being that all teams are treated equally in the CFCI Original Ranking and that it’s designed to work itself out over the course of a season. Currently the CFCI Original Rankings include 19 of the AP Top 25 Poll with five of the six different schools (Arkansas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Arizona St.) looming between 26 and 35 in the CFCI Original. Although having only one loss, the Arkansas Razorbacks are the biggest difference between the CFCI and either the AP Top 25 or the BCS. In large part Arkansas’s statistical defensive performances are to blame in addition to losing some ground because of an off week in the categories which consider performances over the course of a season. As against the BCS, the CFCI Original includes 20 of the 25 same schools. Both the CFCI and BCS include Penn St. which is omitted from the AP Top 25 Poll. Three of the five differences between the two are found in schools ranked 26 through 35 in the CFCI Original (Arkansas, Georgia and Texas A&M), but expanded CFCI rankings don’t include either Texas or Auburn. Both schools have two losses while Texas’ defensive rankings were pummeled over the last two weeks by the collective 93 points racked up by Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Auburn suffers on both sides of the ball from giving up more than 34 points in 3 games this year while scoring no more than 17 points in 3 games this season.

Head-to-Head between Alabama and LSU, the Tide hold slight advantages statistically in the Passing First Downs component of Total First Downs by Season, Pass Efficiency Defense, Scoring Offense, Sacks by Season, and Passing Offense. LSU holds small advantages over Alabama in Passing Efficiency Offense and Turnover Margin. The overall difference after every category is measured is only fourteen-thousandths of a point. The difference in the opinion polls likely comes from LSU’s victories over 4 Top 25 teams as opposed to Alabama’s 3.

College Football Champion Index Original™ Week 7

Performance RankCFCI Week 7PerformanceEliminationElimination Rank
1Alabama0.9700.9701
2LSU0.9560.9562
3Wisconsin0.9480.9483
4Boise St.0.9360.9364
6Stanford0.9250.9255
7Oklahoma0.9220.9226
11Clemson0.8710.8717
18Houston0.8560.8568
28Oklahoma St.0.8320.8329
31Kansas St.0.8260.82610
5Cincinnati0.9310.62111
9Virginia Tech0.9100.60712
10Illinois0.8930.59513
12Michigan St.0.8700.58014
15Penn St.0.8610.57415
22Oregon0.8530.56916
23Michigan0.8530.56917
24South Carolina0.8500.56718
26Georgia Tech0.8480.56519
27Southern Miss.0.8350.55620
34Washington0.8190.54621
38West Virginia0.8100.54022
41Rutgers0.8070.53823
56La.-Lafayette0.7710.51424
57SMU0.7690.51325
62Nebraska0.7630.50926
66Arkansas0.7590.50627
8Temple0.9200.46028
13South Fla.0.8660.43329
17TCU0.8560.42830
19Georgia0.8550.42831
20Texas A&M0.8550.42732
29North Carolina0.8280.41433
33Notre Dame0.8240.41234
35Arizona St.0.8190.40935
42Baylor0.8060.40336
43FIU0.8050.40337
44Arkansas St.0.8020.40138
45Texas Tech0.7960.39839
46Iowa0.7960.39840
54Texas0.7740.38741
55Virginia0.7710.38642
63San Diego St.0.7620.38143
67Wyoming0.7570.37944
70Wake Forest0.7560.37845
72Auburn0.7550.37746
76Syracuse0.7340.36747
78BYU0.7180.35948
14Missouri0.8650.34649
16UCF0.8580.34350
21Ohio0.8540.34151
25Florida St.0.8490.33952
32Toledo0.8250.33053
36Ohio St.0.8160.32654
37Air Force0.8130.32555
40Northern Ill.0.8080.32356
47Utah0.7820.31357
48Miami (FL)0.7820.31358
50Hawaii0.7780.31159
52Purdue0.7760.31160
53Florida0.7760.31061
58Washington St.0.7680.30762
59North Carolina St.0.7680.30763
60Nevada0.7670.30764
61California0.7640.30665
68Tennessee0.7560.30366
69Western Mich.0.7560.30367
79New Mexico St.0.7180.28768
83Tulsa0.7080.28369
87Eastern Mich.0.6950.27870
88Ball St.0.6900.27671
91Colorado St.0.6810.27272
92UTEP0.6800.27273
93Duke0.6790.27174
39Mississippi St.0.8090.27075
96Vanderbilt0.6730.26976
101UCLA0.6620.26577
49Northwestern0.7790.26078
51Connecticut0.7780.25979
109Iowa St.0.6340.25480
64Louisville0.7610.25481
65Pittsburgh0.7590.25382
71Bowling Green0.7560.25283
73Louisiana Tech0.7520.25184
74Maryland0.7360.24585
75La.-Monroe0.7340.24586
77Navy0.7240.24187
80Kansas0.7150.23888
81Utah St.0.7140.23889
82Middle Tenn.0.7100.23790
84Fresno St.0.7010.23491
85Army0.6990.23392
95Rice0.6740.22593
97Marshall0.6700.22394
98San Jose St.0.6680.22395
99Miami (OH)0.6650.22296
102Western Ky.0.6610.22097
106Troy0.6510.21798
107East Carolina0.6500.21799
111Ole Miss0.6000.200100
86Tulane0.6960.199101
89North Texas0.6880.196102
94Buffalo0.6750.193103
100Oregon St.0.6630.190104
104Boston College0.6570.188105
105Arizona0.6540.187106
120Kentucky0.5490.183107
108Central Mich.0.6410.183108
90Colorado0.6860.171109
113Minnesota0.5910.169110
103Indiana0.6580.165111
117Akron0.5620.161112
118UNLV0.5580.159113
110Memphis0.6030.151114
112New Mexico0.5950.149115
114Idaho0.5810.145116
115Kent St.0.5690.142117
116Fla. Atlantic0.5630.141118
119UAB0.5570.139119
30Southern California0.8270.000120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

In working with modifications to the CFCI, two things became evident. The first was that losses by some schools are treated worse than losses by others whether one looks at the AP Top 25 or the BCS Poll. It should be noted for those who don’t know that the AP Top 25 is not included in the BCS computation. The second issue is illustrated by Louisiana-Lafayette in the CFCI Original. Although it may work out over the course of the season, the Rajun Cajuns’ sole loss this season is to Oklahoma State by a score of 61-34. Through Week 7 the highest ranked CFCI opponent in the Elimination Index that La-Lafayette has beaten has been 98th ranked Troy. It makes little football common sense to place the Rajun Cajuns among the elite.

Believing that the CFCI has much going for it already, without the benefit of study (which will take some time) the logical way of tweaking the system was to take the observations above and see if they might be made to approximate the AP Top 25 and BCS Poll when the same math was applied to similarly-situated schools. In some manner it would bring human evaluation into the CFCI, and yes, it might be fairly said that the numbers are being manipulated within a framework to produce a result.

The easiest and first choice was to recognize and account for the difference between BCS and non-BCS Conference Schools when they lose. Adjustments were made by adding a slightly greater impact on the Elimination Index when non-BCS Conference team loses. But the change didn’t make a tremendous difference and specifically didn’t take a team like the Houston Cougars into account. At 6-0, Houston is worthy of some recognition but with the Cougars’ best victory over a CFCI 77th ranked UCLA, keying on losses wouldn’t make any fair adjustment.

The difference between BCS and non-BCS conferences was once again played upon. The idea here was to discount the Performance Score without making the hurdle insurmountable for a non-BCS Conference school. Two exceptions were made for schools who have cracked the BCS barrier recently and who are treated differently as is done in the real world. Neither Boise State nor TCU were tagged with the non-BCS reduction in Performance Scores. For Boise, its performance scores are great enough that it wouldn’t keep the school out of the CFCI’s Top 10 even if a reduction was applied. TCU has two losses and the losses alone would bring them down the list with or without a reduction in performance values.

Even applying those changes the net result didn’t change by much the number of CFCI-ranked teams in either the AP Top 25 or the BCS Polls. In other words, despite blatant changes applied across categories of teams, as long as all BCS Conference teams, with two noted exceptions, were treated the same, all the changes did to some extent was to substitute out one set of teams for another set of non-AP Top 25 or non-BCS Ranked teams. The sticking points came in the system’s evaluation of one-loss ACC and Big East teams. With BCS Conference teams such as Clemson, poll voters don’t appear to care that Clemson is in the ACC as long as it remains undefeated. For the CFCI, if a team doesn’t lose, its Performance Score is the same as its Elimination Score. One-loss ACC and Big East Teams, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in the ACC and Rutgers, Cincinnati and West Virginia in the Big East, collectively fair no better in either the AP or BCS Polls than a No. 11 West Virginia ranking while Rutgers and Cincinnati are in neither poll.

Please pardon the long path to the imperfect solution, but it’s a point worth noting. When Elimination Scores (i.e. accounting for losses) were calculated exactly the same way for ACC, Big East, and non-BCS Conference schools, the result is the Index below which more closely approximates the AP Top 25 and BCS Polls. With the tweaks as described, the CFCI Modified Index includes 23 of the 25 AP Top 25 Poll teams and 22 of the 25 BCS Poll Teams. In the end, non-BCS Conference Teams’ performances were were discounted and losses of non-BCS, ACC, and Big East Teams are slightly more harsh than for non-BCS teams. The results are some indication of how poll voters are behaving collectively regardless of whether they actually believe they are making those evaluations.

In the end, the CFCI Original Index is expected to include somewhere around 20-22 of the BCS and AP Top 25 Polls without the modifications.

College Football Champion Index Modified™ 7

Performance RankModified CFCI Week 7PerformanceEliminationElimination Rank
1Alabama0.9700.9701
2LSU0.9560.9562
3Wisconsin0.9480.9483
4Boise St.0.9360.9364
6Stanford0.9250.9255
7Oklahoma0.9220.9226
10Clemson0.8710.8717
23Oklahoma St.0.8320.8328
26Kansas St.0.8260.8269
59Houston0.7280.72810
9Illinois0.8930.71411
11Michigan St.0.8700.69612
14Penn St.0.8610.68913
18Oregon0.8530.68314
19Michigan0.8530.68315
20South Carolina0.8500.68016
28Washington0.8190.65517
5Cincinnati0.9310.62118
49Nebraska0.7630.61119
52Arkansas0.7590.60720
8Virginia Tech0.9100.60721
16Georgia0.8550.57022
17Texas A&M0.8550.57022
22Georgia Tech0.8480.56524
29Arizona St.0.8190.54625
31West Virginia0.8100.54026
33Rutgers0.8070.53827
34Baylor0.8060.53728
35Texas Tech0.7960.53129
36Iowa0.7960.53130
44Texas0.7740.51631
55Auburn0.7550.50332
13Missouri0.8650.49433
62Southern Miss.0.7090.47334
30Ohio St.0.8160.46635
37Utah0.7820.44736
42Purdue0.7760.44437
43Florida0.7760.44338
46Washington St.0.7680.43939
76La.-Lafayette0.6550.43740
48California0.7640.43741
78SMU0.6530.43642
12South Fla.0.8660.43343
53Tennessee0.7560.43244
15TCU0.8560.42845
24North Carolina0.8280.41446
27Notre Dame0.8240.41247
32Mississippi St.0.8090.40548
39Temple0.7820.39149
40Northwestern0.7790.39050
45Virginia0.7710.38651
70Vanderbilt0.6730.38552
72UCLA0.6620.37953
54Wake Forest0.7560.37854
57Syracuse0.7340.36755
85Iowa St.0.6340.36256
61Kansas0.7150.35757
67FIU0.6850.34258
68Arkansas St.0.6820.34159
21Florida St.0.8490.33960
80San Diego St.0.6470.32461
81Wyoming0.6440.32262
38Miami (FL)0.7820.31363
47North Carolina St.0.7680.30764
88BYU0.6110.30565
93Ole Miss0.6000.30066
71Oregon St.0.6630.29567
58UCF0.7300.29268
77Arizona0.6540.29069
60Ohio0.7260.29070
63Toledo0.7010.28071
64Air Force0.6910.27772
111Kentucky0.5490.27573
65Northern Ill.0.6860.27574
66Colorado0.6860.27475
69Duke0.6790.27176
73Hawaii0.6620.26577
74Indiana0.6580.26378
97Minnesota0.5910.26379
79Nevada0.6520.26180
41Connecticut0.7780.25981
82Western Mich.0.6430.25782
50Louisville0.7610.25483
51Pittsburgh0.7590.25384
56Maryland0.7360.24585
89New Mexico St.0.6110.24486
92Tulsa0.6020.24187
98Eastern Mich.0.5900.23688
99Ball St.0.5870.23589
101Colorado St.0.5790.23190
102UTEP0.5780.23191
83Bowling Green0.6420.21492
84Louisiana Tech0.6390.21393
86La.-Monroe0.6240.20894
87Navy0.6160.20595
90Utah St.0.6070.20296
91Middle Tenn.0.6030.20197
94Fresno St.0.5960.19998
95Army0.5940.19899
104Rice0.5730.191100
105Marshall0.5700.190101
106San Jose St.0.5680.189102
107Miami (OH)0.5650.188103
75Boston College0.6570.188104
108Western Ky.0.5620.187105
109Troy0.5540.185106
110East Carolina0.5530.184107
96Tulane0.5920.169108
100North Texas0.5840.167109
103Buffalo0.5740.164110
112Central Mich.0.5440.156111
118Akron0.4780.137112
119UNLV0.4740.136113
113Memphis0.5120.128114
114New Mexico0.5050.126115
115Idaho0.4940.124116
116Kent St.0.4840.121117
117Fla. Atlantic0.4780.120118
120UAB0.4730.118119
25Southern California0.8270.000120

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.

 

CFCI v. AP Top 25 v. BCS Poll

CFCI Orig. Rk.CFCI OriginalCFCI Mod. Rk.CFCI ModifiedAP Top 25 Rk.AP Top 25BCS Rk.BCS Poll
1Alabama1Alabama1LSU1LSU
2LSU2LSU2Alabama2Alabama
3Wisconsin3Wisconsin3Oklahoma3Oklahoma
4Boise St.4Boise St.4Wisconsin4Oklahoma St.
5Stanford5Stanford5Boise State5Boise State
6Oklahoma6Oklahoma6Oklahoma St.6Wisconsin
7Clemson7Clemson7Stanford7Clemson
8Houston8Oklahoma St.8Clemson8Stanford
9Oklahoma St.9Kansas St.9Oregon9Arkansas
10Kansas St.10Houston10Arkansas10Oregon
11Cincinnati11Illinois11West Virginia11Kansas St.
12Virginia Tech12Michigan St.12Kansas St.12Virginia Tech
13Illinois13Penn St.13Nebraska13Nebraska
14Michigan St.14Oregon14South Carolina14South Carolina
15Penn St.14Michigan15Michigan St.15West Virginia
16Oregon16South Carolina16Virginia Tech16Michigan St.
16Michigan17Washington17Texas A&M17Texas A&M
18South Carolina18Cincinnati18Michigan18Michigan
19Georgia Tech19Nebraska19Auburn19Houston
20Southern Miss.20Arkansas20Georgia Tech20Auburn
21Washington21Virginia Tech21Houston21Penn State
22West Virginia22Georgia22Washington22Georgia Tech
23Rutgers23Texas A&M23Illinois23Illinois
24La.-Lafayette24Georgia Tech24Georgia24Texas
25SMU25Arizona St.25Arizona State25Washington

Sort as You Like.
*University of Southern California is Banned from post-season play through 2011 and is automatically eliminated from contention.
College Football Championship Index Prior Weeks

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Unable to do Week 6.

Explanation of the College Football Champion Index

Posted in Football, SEC | Tagged Alabama Crimson Tide, AP Top 25, Arkansas Razorbacks, BCS Poll, College Football Champion, College Football Champion Index, College Football Rankings, College Football Ratings, LSU Tigers Football, SEC Football

Article written by Sharp "Tusk" Williams

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.

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