Why the Arkansas Razorbacks Dropped in the BCS Poll

Arkansas’ fall in the BCS Rankings after a win is hardly an indication of a particular bias against the Razorbacks or of a lack of respect.  Having studied the BCS system, having studied the BCS formula, having read the technical publications accompanying each of the polls as well as having some experience with developing a computer ranking system, a detailed explanation might be given, but for today let’s get to the basic points.

Dealing with the issue of respect, the Razorbacks moved up in both human polls.  In the Harris Poll the Hogs moved from 10th place to 9th place. For those who would like to know more about the Harris Poll, click this link. The short explanation from their website is:

The 2011 Harris Interactive College Football Poll is comprised of 115 panelists and includes former coaches, players, administrators and current and former media. Panelists are randomly drawn by Harris Interactive from among more than 300 nominations supplied by the 11 Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) conferences and independent institutions. The panel meets Harris Interactive criteria for sample design and is a statistically reliable representation of all 11 conferences and independent institutions.

In the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, Arkansas moved up from 10th to 8th. Computers don’t respect or criticize anyone, so it’s difficult to say that the Arkansas Razorbacks are suffering from a lack of respect from people in the college football world who matter.

One-third of the BCS Ranking is a composite computer ranking of six selected computer polls which are averaged together. Computers are part of the BCS computation in the first place because writers and coaches may be influenced from the amount of media coverage or vote with a certain amount of “homer” influence. Computers crunch numbers according to the method that their authors use, and admittedly the systems may contain bias. However, any one computer poll counts for no more than 1/6 of 1/3 of the BCS Rankings, i.e. 5.5% of the total. Even then, most of the systems aren’t terribly different in terms of their results from one another and the difference in any single off-base poll has only a smaller fraction of the overall impact because the team is already getting some credit vs. the amount of credit others believe they should receive. The computers rank the Hogs as 12th, 11th, 15th, 6th, 7th, and 6th for an average ranking of 8th. It’s really simple and understandable to say, “Hey Sharp, don’t you see that we’re 9th, 8th, and 8th, in each of the three components of the BCS? There’s no way to tell us that we should be 10th in the BCS.”

The reasons why Arkansas fell to 10th in the BCS standings don’t have as much to do with Arkansas as much as they have to do with the teams around Arkansas being either ranked higher in the human polls or much higher in the computer polls. Really, we are comparing four teams, Oregon, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Arkansas who are separated by 296 ten-thousandths (10,oooths) of a point and grouped in the last part of the BCS Top 10. You can see the complete BCS Standings for Week 9 below. The differences overall in these four teams are negligible. In case you’re wondering, the grouping isn’t arbitrary. 7th ranked Oregon is separated from 6th ranked Stanford by 1247 ten-thousandths of a point while 10th ranked Arkansas is 1201 ten-thousandths of a point higher in the BCS than 11th ranked Michigan St. The result is a clear demarcation setting Oregon, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Arkansas together between BCS ratings of .6877 and .6581.

BCS  Complete Standings Week 9

BCS Rk.	Team	BCS AVG	BCS PVS	Harris Rk.	Harris Pts.	Harris BCS %	Coaches' Rk.	Coaches' Pts.	BCS Coach %	Comp. Avg.	A&H	RB	CM	KM	JS	PW	Comp. BCS %
01	LSU	0.9702	01	01	2854	0.9927	01	1457	0.9878	03	03	01	03	02	03	03	0.93
02	Alabama	0.9627	02	02	2777	0.9659	02	1434	0.9722	02	02	03	02	03	02	02	0.95
03	Oklahoma State	0.9240	04	03	2559	0.8901	04	1301	0.8820	01	01	02	01	01	01	01	1.00
04	Boise State	0.8302	05	05	2410	0.8383	05	1213	0.8224	05	05	04	04	06	08	06	0.83
05	Clemson	0.8240	07	06	2346	0.816	06	1174	0.7959	04	06	05	05	04	04	04	0.86
06	Stanford	0.8124	08	04	2523	0.8776	03	1327	0.8997	09	07	06	08	14	21	09	0.66
07	Oregon	0.6877	10	07	2136	0.743	07	1121	0.7600	12	14	07	12	12	12	12	0.56
08	Kansas State	0.6681	11	10	1764	0.6136	12	0827	0.5607	05	04	09	06	05	05	05	0.83
09	Oklahoma	0.6642	03	08	1866	0.649	09	0964	0.6536	07	08	08	07	08	11	14	0.69
10	Arkansas	0.6581	09	09	1851	0.6438	08	0974	0.6603	08	12	11	15	07	06	07	0.67
11	Michigan State	0.5380	16	11	1760	0.6122	10	0932	0.6319	15	18	10	16	17	17	17	0.37
12	Virginia Tech	0.5338	12	15	1343	0.4671	15	0729	0.4942	10	11	16	10	09	10	08	0.64
13	South Carolina	0.5014	14	14	1378	0.4793	14	0730	0.4949	13	10	17	11	11	14	15	0.53
14	Nebraska	0.4385	13	13	1508	0.5245	13	0798	0.5410	21	20	13	18	22	23	19	0.25
15	Wisconsin	0.4333	06	12	1731	0.6021	11	0867	0.5878	24	24	12	23	00	25	21	0.11
16	Texas A&M	0.4281	17	17	1040	0.3617	16	0520	0.3525	11	13	14	17	10	07	10	0.57
17	Houston	0.3676	19	18	0975	0.3391	18	0507	0.3437	14	9	0	9	16	00	11	0.42
18	Michigan	0.3416	18	16	1072	0.3729	17	0519	0.3519	19	15	20	13	21	24	18	0.3
19	Penn State	0.3071	21	19	0769	0.2675	19	0448	0.3037	17	16	23	14	18	19	16	0.35
20	Texas Tech	0.2012	NR	21	0407	0.1416	22	0180	0.1220	18	22	15	25	13	13	20	0.34
21	Arizona State	0.1633	NR	20	0542	0.1885	20	0253	0.1715	23	25	21	22	24	20	24	0.13
22	Georgia	0.1594	NR	22	0337	0.1172	21	0208	0.1410	22	19	0	20	20	18	23	0.22
23	Auburn	0.1310	20	NR	0060	0.0209	NR	0003	0.0020	15	21	18	0	15	09	13	0.37
24	Texas	0.1187	24	25	0152	0.0529	NR	0049	0.0332	20	17	00	19	19	15	22	0.27
25	West Virginia	0.0733	15	23	0330	0.1148	24	0155	0.1051	30	00	00	00	00	00	00	0.00

Sort as you like.
So that sorting would work properly, zeros have been added where needed.

Some have noted the difference in the Associated Press’s Top 25 Poll and the BCS Poll. The AP Top 25 was no longer part of the BCS calculation beginning in 2004. Ultimately, it’s an opinion like everyone else’s, and where it fits in is that it gives rankings before the first BCS Poll every year. Why? The BCS Polls don’t start until week 7 or so of the season in part because it’s really too early before then in any season to start to see teams with real strength against worthy opponents for a few weeks. The other reason is that some computer rankings will need the data of several weeks in order to begin producing meaningful results.

Some will never agree that computer rankings should be a part of college football; however, this season has produced an example of what the computers bring to the table. Hog Database’s College Football Champion Index and the BCS Polls both included Penn State week before last in the Top 25. The Associated Press had Penn State as the first of “Others Receiving Votes” so the Nittany Lions were just out of the Top 25. The BCS had Penn State at 21 in its first poll with an average computer ranking of 16. The College Football Champion Index had Penn State at No. 15. Not everyone has to see the landscape the same way, but the cold calculations of computers can sometimes recognize things which people don’t see.

Here’s what happened with the Razorbacks this week. Oregon was the beneficiary of the teams losing ahead of the Ducks in the both the Harris and USA Today Polls and vaulted from No. 9 to No. 7 in the Harris Poll and No. 8 to No. 7 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll. The Ducks maintained their No. 12 computer average. The CFCI has the Ducks at No. 14. Kansas St. which was No. 11 in the BCS Poll last week, moved up across the board. The Harris Poll moved the Wildcats from 12 to 10 while the Coaches moved them up 4 positions from 16 to 12. However, the computers have moved Kansas State up to a No. 5 average where the College Football Champion Index had them last week and where they remain this week. Of the grouping, Oklahoma’s loss and higher ranking than the Razorbacks is probably the more understandable one of the bunch. The Sooners fell from BCS No. 3 to BCS No. 9, ranking No. 8 and 9 in the Harris and USA Today Polls this week down from No. 3 and No. 1 respectively, and they came in at No. 7 in the computer polls, down from an average of No. 4. The College Football Champion Index had the Sooners at No. 6 last week and falling to No. 15 this week. The Hogs moved to No. 9 and No. 8 in the Harris and Coaches’ Polls this week up from No. 10 in both while maintaining a No. 8 rank in the computer rankings. As against the composite BCS Champion in the CFCI, the Razorbacks moved up to No. 20 this week based on their win over Ole Miss alone. Defensive stats drag the Hogs to a performance ranking of 51st which is the lowest of the CFCI’s Top 25, but the divergence between assessed performance and actual rank credits greatly the emphasis that the CFCI places on winning.

If there’s any way to sum up this week for Arkansas in the Polls, it’s to borrow the old saying, “You’re either getting ahead or falling behind, because you’re never going to stay the same.” Against Ole Miss, the Hogs’ got by and fell behind.

**If you compare the College Football Champion Index to the Computer Polls, not a single BCS Computer Poll places 3 of the BCS Top 4 in order. The CFCI does.