“You Can’t Get There from Here”
Needing some direction lately, we’ve rolled down the Hog Bus window and asked the Recruiting Fellas, “How we can get to the SEC or National Championships?”
Their replies? “You can’t get there from here.”
Now, I don’t know about you, but when I ask for directions and a fella starts his this way, I start thinkin’ cabin deep in the forest, maybe a below-ground room with a bunch of candles in it, and maybe somethin’ having to do with a sharp axe! Even if I haven’t been watching B movies lately, I’m wary of the fella practicing a self-perpetuating profession. That’s like the plastic surgeon who’d make suggestions to Michael Jackson on areas that could be improved or Madam Olga whose crystal ball loses signal with the spirit world and I’ve got to come back for another $50 session to get it fired up again.
In Bobby the Builder instead of looking outward to all of the recruits who are available, I turned the viewer back to Bobby Petrino and the Razorback Team believing that the key to understanding any players that he recruits starts with understanding him. Simply, Petrino thinks empirically and in terms of mathematical efficiency in order to maximize the benefit of many coaching decisions he makes.
As applied to recruiting, the “needs” he was trying to fill were determinable and not some eye-balled guess at the direction Coach Petrino would take the team.
I re-worked the current player distribution graph when more detailed scholarship information on players and positions came my way. It’s worth a look at the breakdown:
Years of Eligibility Remaining
……..1…….2……3……4
QB….0…….1…….2…..1…..4
RB…..1……2…….2…..1…..6
WR….1……3…….2…..4…..10
TE…..2……1…….2…..2…..7
OL…..4……4…….4…..3…..15
DL…..3……3…….5…..5…..16
CB…..3……2…….0…..0…..5
DB…..2……1…….5…..5…..13
LB…..3……2…….3……2…..10
S…….0……2…….0…..0…..2
K…….1……0…….0…..1…..2
P…….0……0…….0…..1…..1
SNP…1……0…….0……0….1
Total..21…21…..25…..25
This is a close estimate and some of it will change after players, like Neal Barlow who didn’t play, actually have a year of eligibility restored. Some of it will change as players change positions. For the graph above, 4 years of eligibility represents the 2010 recruiting class.
Put aside reality for a moment and consider the “ideal distribution” (just think, “we’ll even all the players and classes and positions”) of players by position and by years of eligibility remaining. The chart would look something like this:
Years Remaining of Eligibility
………..1………..2…………3…………4
……….20……….22……….20………..22
QB……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
RB……..1…………2………..1…………2……6
WR…….2…………3………..2…………3……10
TE……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
OL……..5…………4………..5…………4……18
DL……..4…………5………..4…………5……18
CB……..2…………2………..2…………2……8
DB……..1…………1………..1…………1……4
LB……..2…………2…………2…………2……8
S………1…………1…………1…………1…….4
Putting the actual numbers of players at a position next to the “ideal” number, here’s how they look together
Position……Actual……Predicted
QB……..…………4………..…4
RB……..…………6………..…6
WR…….…………10………..10
TE……..…………7………..…4
OL……..…………15………..18
DL……..…………16…………18
CB……..…………5………..…8
DB……..…………13………..4
LB…………………10…………8
S………..…………2…………..4
Players generically labeled as defensive backs (DB) might be cornerbacks or safeties as well. All-in-all, for putting together a group of 85 people, the actual is close to the ideal.
The whole reason this is important is that it’s my belief that Coach Petrino would like a program that “reloads.” The goal is to build a “consistent, Top 10 team.” Logically, that goal won’t sell out one year for another or have gaps at some position in some years. ALL the players are important every year!
As they were giving directions, the Recruiting Fellas said, “You can’t win in the SEC with 2 and 3 Star players. You can’t get there from here.”
Let’s think about this for a moment. The implications are that Petrino is being “out-recruited” by others and isn’t executing a viable plan to get the Razorback Bus where we want it to go. Further, Bobby Petrino’s analytical mind failed to construct a football system without redundancy or alternative means to accomplish the goal.
What other road to winning the SEC and National Championships is there?
It’s developing players.
When I’ve suggested that, others have said,
“Petrino and staff are no better at developing players than any other SEC Coach.”
“Florida and Alabama recruit have recruited much better talent than Petrino. Those schools send a lot of players to the NFL.”
“We’re starting off behind. Period. End of Story.”
I take some consolation in the fact that these folks at least agree that a player getting drafted by an NFL team has some NFL talent.
Quick Quiz:
Including the 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 NFL Drafts, which team had the most players drafted –
Arkansas
Florida
Alabama
Louisville
Tennessee
Mississippi
The answer is Louisville with 21 NFL players drafted.
Over that time period, SEC schools had the following numbers of players taken in the NFL Draft.
Arkansas — 14
Florida — 19
Alabama — 15
Tennessee — 18
Mississippi — 11
Let’s look at the Louisville players drafted by the NFL.
I’ve included the “pick number” used to take the player in the NFL draft, the player’s name, playing position, school, draft round, year began at Louisville, Rivals Stars and Rivals link.
Now we can compare the fact that the player was drafted by the NFL to an estimate of the player’s ability at the beginning of his college career.
Louisville
2005 NFL Draft
54 Eric Shelton RB Louisville 2 (2002)
121 Stefan LeFors QB Louisville 4 (2000)
123 Kerry Rhodes SS Louisville 4 (2000)
154 Robert McCune LB Louisville 5 (2001?)
236 Lionel Gates RB Louisville 7 (2001)
253 J.R. Russell WR Louisville 7 (2000)
2006 NFL Draft
75 Jason Spitz G Louisville 3 (2001)
126 Elvis Dumervil DE Louisville 4 (2002) *** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Elvis-Dumervil-1000
142 Brandon Johnson LB Louisville 5 (2001)
182 Montavious Stanley DT Louisville 6 (2001)
2007 NFL Draft
10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville 1 (2003) ** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Amobi-Okoye-15728
100 Michael Bush RB Louisville 4 (2003) **** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Michael-Bush-6190
148 Kolby Smith RB Louisville 5 (2003) *** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Kolby-Smith-10782
170 William Gay CB Louisville 5 (2003) *** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-William-Gay-10783
2008 NFL Draft
56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville 2 (2004) **** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Brian-Brohm-14601
84 Harry Douglas WR Louisville 3 (2003) ** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Anthony-Douglas-24103
141 Gary Barnidge TE Louisville 5 (2004) ** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Gary-Barnidge-25148
150 Breno Giacomini T Louisville 5 (2004) ** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Breno-Giacomini-25435
246 Mario Urrutia WR Louisville 7 (2004) *** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Mario-Urrutia-16729
2009 NFL Draft
28 Eric Wood C Louisville 1 (2004) ** http://rivals.yahoo.com/louisville/football/recruiting/player-Eric-Wood-25112
170 George Bussey T Louisville 5 (2004?)
Of 11 player rankings I could readily find (information before 2002 isn’t available), NINE of the NFL Draftees were 2 or 3 Star players when signed by Louisville.
* 0
** 5
*** 4
**** 2
***** 0
unk. 10
If you noticed that some of the players were from 2002 and before, Petrino didn’t recruit them. Arkansas Coach John L. Smith did!
BY COMPARISON PETRINO AND SMITH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUTTING MORE PLAYERS IN THE NFL THAN A FLORIDA TEAM WHICH WON BOTH THE 2006 AND 2008 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS.
If you’re inclined to think that Petrino is just as good at “coaching up” players just as well as anyone else, you might change your mind.
The high and mighty Urban Meyer and Florida program certainly HASN’T COACHED UP PLAYERS.
Through these five drafts, he’s had no 2-star players and only 3 3-Star players drafted. The rest were 4 or 5 star players. I couldn’t find a rating for one Florida player using gatorbait.net.
In the Recruiting Classes leading up to these classes, I counted around 11 or so 5 star recruits. Florida has had only a handful of 2 Star recruits. I counted more than 40 3 Star recruits from the classes leading up to these Drafts. They had even more 4 Star recruits than 3.
I’ve listed the Florida Players drafted and their recruiting information in this thread.
Few “average” Florida players made it to the NFL while Petrino and Company’s “average players” were going to the NFL in greater numbers than Florida’s “star players.”
There are TWO ways to get there from here.
DON’T WORRY, PETRINO AND COMPANY KNOW THE WAY!
Kendall
I have always thought that the higher ranked players will get outworked over time, and replaced in NFL combines by less highley recruited players. Common sense says so. The sooner someone ‘arrives’ or billed as big many times they stop working. For college athletes at a critical juncture when the physical and mental all starting to mature together. The guy still having to work to find his niche builds a greater channel of self discipline that serves longer. A 5 star on a team loaded with highly ranked players will not work as hard or develop as much. I small amount of slothfullness seeps in. It is the reason teams can not stay on top forever. If Texas played in a conference that demanded excellence every week you would see them leaking water to the tune of 3-4 losses pretty regular.