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You are here: Home / 2013 / October / 05 / College Football Champion Index Week 5 & Arkansas v. Florida

College Football Champion Index Week 5 & Arkansas v. Florida

By Sharp "Tusk" Williams on October 5, 2013

Big News for a small system. BCS Computer guru Ken Massey has agreed to include the CFCI in his Composite Rankings!  It’s a huge honor! (…or if it is to no one else, it is to me.) Expect the CFCI to debut there next week.

To be consistent with what others are doing in his rankings, the College Football Champion Index includes NCAA provisional qualifying teams Georgia State and UTSA (University of Texas at San Antonio) because they are mainly playing DI schedules.

On the eve of such an honor, the ranking system has its merits and challenges.

For Week 5, the College Football Champion Index again ranks 18 of the A.P. Top 25 while the BCS Polls which are publishing did a little better:   Richard Billingsley (19),  Colley Matrix (20), , Ken Massey (21), and Jeff Sagarin (22).

The CFCI’s math narrowly missed Northwestern at 28 and Georgia at 26 while there is likely some explaining to do regarding the very low CFCI rankings of Texas A&M (50) and South Carolina (38).

The long story made short is that the old adage “defense wins championships” is not simply an adage. It’s a statistical fact.  Through a study of BCS Champions since 2000 which has continued yearly since 2009, 5 defensive statistical categories are highly consistent with BCS Champions while 3 offensive ones are.  One of the other categories is a composite recruiting number for elite players which remains constant throughout the year and obviously won/loss record.

Quite frankly, Texas A&M is horrible on defense, and their offense caught Alabama at the right time before Saban blew a gasket.  A&M ranks 86th in the country in scoring defense allowing 30.8 points a game thus far.  Since this Index measures consistency with BCS  Champions, let’s compare A&M to the worst of the BCS Champions in Scoring Defense, the 2010 Auburn Tigers.  Even Auburn over the course of the season only permitted 24.07 points per game while overall BCS Champions have a MEDIAN performance of  13 points per game.  The Aggies are 72nd in Passing Efficiency Defense and 112th in Total Defense.

The story is similar for South Carolina: 99th in Pass Efficiency Defense , 58th in Total Defense, 64th in Scoring Defense, and so on.

On the other end, the one of the highest climbers in the ranking was Alabama after a 25-0 shutout of Ole Miss.

Arkansas Razorbacks

This weekend Arkansas will face the highest raw score unadjusted for wins and losses this week.  Florida has as stout of a defense that Arkansas will face all season, allowing 12.8 ppg on defense, ranking 6th in Passing Efficiency Defense, and ranking 2nd in Total Defense.  That’s good enough, right?  Against Arkansas’ forte, the run, Florida ranks No. 1 in the country allowing a sparse 53.5 yards per game.  As a point of reference, that’s about what Rutgers defense was allowing in rushing yards per game two weeks ago. (Rutgers is still averaging under 70 yards per game in rushing defense.)  Hopefully for the Hogs, Brandon Allen will make a difference and open up the running game with a threat of passing, but it will require some new wrinkles to get receivers open because Florida is stout against the pass.

This looks like it could be a defensive battle.  The Gators’ offense is 90th in scoring offense putting up 23.8 points per game while it’s 97th in passing offense.  Florida fairs a little better in rushing at 36th with 211 yards rushing per game.  Whichever team can put up 20 points or so will likely be the winner.

One final stat of interest to many is time of possession.  Arkansas’ done wonderfully, possessing the ball on average 33:38 per game.  However, Florida’s ToP is a gaudy 38:58 per game!  This Gator team is the perfect example of a a misconception about time of possession.  High times of possession are more associated with stifling defenses than slow, grinding offenses.

College Football Champion Index Week 5

+/-Wk. 4 RankWk. 5 RankTeamCFCI Wk. 5CFCI Wk. 4+/-WLRaw
121Oklahoma0.94880.9658-0.017400.948777733
242Miami (FL)0.93620.93160.0046400.936198051
-213Florida St.0.92760.968-0.0404400.927606857
-134Ohio St.0.92730.9596-0.0323500.927262897
055Oregon0.92430.9257-0.0014400.924261512
066Maryland0.91930.91930400.919305095
077Washington0.89890.9188-0.0199400.898854626
13218Alabama0.89550.81910.0764400.895450297
099Michigan0.8950.8950400.895044652
01010Louisville0.88960.88960400.889599729
21311Baylor0.87720.87720300.877207039
01212Florida0.87010.88-0.0099310.957155977
11413UCLA0.85820.8614-0.0032300.858157566
31714Stanford0.8490.83830.0107400.849026741
82315Clemson0.84580.80360.0422400.845837056
42016Penn St.0.82040.82040310.902456591
-61117Georgia Tech0.80030.8866-0.0863310.880324415
72518Michigan St.0.77810.77810310.855926884
72619Cincinnati0.77570.77570310.853283935
72720Texas Tech0.77460.77460400.774616466
82921Missouri0.76780.7731-0.0053400.767834937
83022Iowa0.76540.7658-0.0004410.86113103
-15823LSU0.7610.9148-0.1538410.856069299
73124Houston0.72540.748-0.0226400.725372094
-71825Oklahoma St.0.72160.8253-0.1037310.793786879
63226Georgia0.72090.7478-0.0269310.792970766
-121527Arizona0.71930.8452-0.1259310.791219199
83628Northwestern0.71750.71750400.717506783
63529Virginia Tech0.7090.7317-0.0227410.797679086
-111930Wisconsin0.7090.8232-0.1142320.886256807
164731North Carolina St.0.7030.66620.0368310.773254882
84032Rutgers0.70110.70110310.771257754
63933Auburn0.70090.7012-0.0003310.771043258
84234Mississippi St.0.69710.69710220.836462521
-191635Southern California0.69410.8405-0.1464320.867670968
23836South Carolina0.68350.7069-0.0234310.75182104
64337Marshall0.68330.68330220.820014768
-162238UCF0.67260.8173-0.1447310.739833155
74639Utah0.66870.66870310.735574457
-162440Ole Miss0.6610.7826-0.1216310.727071763
105141Bowling Green0.65260.64970.0029410.734199712
85042Wyoming0.65160.65160310.716781501
95243Kansas0.64910.64910210.697813288
105444Nebraska0.64820.64820310.713049885
105545Texas0.64530.64530220.774411318
-14546Arizona St.0.64370.6725-0.0288310.708107812
24947Utah St.0.63970.6613-0.0216320.7996095
-74148Navy0.63750.7006-0.0631210.685273752
499849Northern Ill.0.63720.4760.1612400.637222403
35350Texas A&M0.63250.6483-0.0158410.711615833
-183351Colorado0.62630.747-0.1207210.673244186
75952Pittsburgh0.6250.6180.007310.68750698
156853Illinois0.62180.58420.0376310.684016812
35754Memphis0.62120.62120120.714373586
-213455Minnesota0.61880.7331-0.1143410.696097095
-282856Arkansas0.61580.7734-0.1576320.769770914
126957BYU0.6110.58320.0278220.733206552
36158East Carolina0.61070.6122-0.0015310.671756826
36259Syracuse0.60970.6102-0.0005220.731601638
-233760Notre Dame0.60560.7165-0.1109320.757039306
36461Texas St.0.60210.60210210.647278203
157762Fresno St.0.59260.56570.0269400.592589684
06363Tennessee0.59190.6043-0.0124320.739846466
-164864Virginia0.59170.6657-0.074220.710008667
97465TCU0.58630.57340.0129220.703579777
-16566Ball St.0.58250.5999-0.0174410.655284131
37067Kansas St.0.58130.58130220.697524745
87668Vanderbilt0.56470.5662-0.0015320.705933796
138269Boise St.0.55910.5510.0081320.698922947
87870Indiana0.55720.55720220.66864864
-56671West Virginia0.55610.5906-0.0345320.695102288
88072Western Ky.0.55340.5541-0.0007320.691800985
128573Oregon St.0.55190.53620.0157410.620858189
78174Ohio0.5510.5510310.606069817
88375La.-Lafayette0.54760.54760220.657112909
37976UNLV0.5430.5542-0.0112320.67870173
-47377Duke0.54150.5746-0.0331320.676838203
139178Iowa St.0.53430.5210.0133120.614494213
159479Tulane0.52530.51640.0089320.656615658
-364480Washington St.0.51940.6758-0.1564320.649277963
-255681South Ala.0.51910.6273-0.1082220.622874409
-156782Boston College0.50840.5883-0.0799220.610048946
-236083Kentucky0.50810.615-0.1069130.660482892
89284Rice0.50770.5206-0.0129220.60927634
119685Nevada0.4870.4876-0.0006320.608711404
-157186North Carolina0.47930.5801-0.1008130.623066893
-295887North Texas0.4760.6188-0.1428220.571153354
-137588Middle Tenn.0.47340.5713-0.0979320.591762963
-58489UTEP0.46290.537-0.0741130.601726661
393

Posted in Football | Tagged BCS Champion, College Football Champion, College Football Champion Index

Article written by Sharp "Tusk" Williams

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.

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