Big News for a small system. BCS Computer guru Ken Massey has agreed to include the CFCI in his Composite Rankings! It’s a huge honor! (…or if it is to no one else, it is to me.) Expect the CFCI to debut there next week.
To be consistent with what others are doing in his rankings, the College Football Champion Index includes NCAA provisional qualifying teams Georgia State and UTSA (University of Texas at San Antonio) because they are mainly playing DI schedules.
On the eve of such an honor, the ranking system has its merits and challenges.
For Week 5, the College Football Champion Index again ranks 18 of the A.P. Top 25 while the BCS Polls which are publishing did a little better: Richard Billingsley (19), Colley Matrix (20), , Ken Massey (21), and Jeff Sagarin (22).
The CFCI’s math narrowly missed Northwestern at 28 and Georgia at 26 while there is likely some explaining to do regarding the very low CFCI rankings of Texas A&M (50) and South Carolina (38).
The long story made short is that the old adage “defense wins championships” is not simply an adage. It’s a statistical fact. Through a study of BCS Champions since 2000 which has continued yearly since 2009, 5 defensive statistical categories are highly consistent with BCS Champions while 3 offensive ones are. One of the other categories is a composite recruiting number for elite players which remains constant throughout the year and obviously won/loss record.
Quite frankly, Texas A&M is horrible on defense, and their offense caught Alabama at the right time before Saban blew a gasket. A&M ranks 86th in the country in scoring defense allowing 30.8 points a game thus far. Since this Index measures consistency with BCS Champions, let’s compare A&M to the worst of the BCS Champions in Scoring Defense, the 2010 Auburn Tigers. Even Auburn over the course of the season only permitted 24.07 points per game while overall BCS Champions have a MEDIAN performance of 13 points per game. The Aggies are 72nd in Passing Efficiency Defense and 112th in Total Defense.
The story is similar for South Carolina: 99th in Pass Efficiency Defense , 58th in Total Defense, 64th in Scoring Defense, and so on.
On the other end, the one of the highest climbers in the ranking was Alabama after a 25-0 shutout of Ole Miss.
Arkansas Razorbacks
This weekend Arkansas will face the highest raw score unadjusted for wins and losses this week. Florida has as stout of a defense that Arkansas will face all season, allowing 12.8 ppg on defense, ranking 6th in Passing Efficiency Defense, and ranking 2nd in Total Defense. That’s good enough, right? Against Arkansas’ forte, the run, Florida ranks No. 1 in the country allowing a sparse 53.5 yards per game. As a point of reference, that’s about what Rutgers defense was allowing in rushing yards per game two weeks ago. (Rutgers is still averaging under 70 yards per game in rushing defense.) Hopefully for the Hogs, Brandon Allen will make a difference and open up the running game with a threat of passing, but it will require some new wrinkles to get receivers open because Florida is stout against the pass.
This looks like it could be a defensive battle. The Gators’ offense is 90th in scoring offense putting up 23.8 points per game while it’s 97th in passing offense. Florida fairs a little better in rushing at 36th with 211 yards rushing per game. Whichever team can put up 20 points or so will likely be the winner.
One final stat of interest to many is time of possession. Arkansas’ done wonderfully, possessing the ball on average 33:38 per game. However, Florida’s ToP is a gaudy 38:58 per game! This Gator team is the perfect example of a a misconception about time of possession. High times of possession are more associated with stifling defenses than slow, grinding offenses.
College Football Champion Index Week 5
+/- Wk. 4 Rank Wk. 5 Rank Team CFCI Wk. 5 CFCI Wk. 4 +/- W L Raw
1 2 1 Oklahoma 0.9488 0.9658 -0.017 4 0 0.948777733
2 4 2 Miami (FL) 0.9362 0.9316 0.0046 4 0 0.936198051
-2 1 3 Florida St. 0.9276 0.968 -0.0404 4 0 0.927606857
-1 3 4 Ohio St. 0.9273 0.9596 -0.0323 5 0 0.927262897
0 5 5 Oregon 0.9243 0.9257 -0.0014 4 0 0.924261512
0 6 6 Maryland 0.9193 0.9193 0 4 0 0.919305095
0 7 7 Washington 0.8989 0.9188 -0.0199 4 0 0.898854626
13 21 8 Alabama 0.8955 0.8191 0.0764 4 0 0.895450297
0 9 9 Michigan 0.895 0.895 0 4 0 0.895044652
0 10 10 Louisville 0.8896 0.8896 0 4 0 0.889599729
2 13 11 Baylor 0.8772 0.8772 0 3 0 0.877207039
0 12 12 Florida 0.8701 0.88 -0.0099 3 1 0.957155977
1 14 13 UCLA 0.8582 0.8614 -0.0032 3 0 0.858157566
3 17 14 Stanford 0.849 0.8383 0.0107 4 0 0.849026741
8 23 15 Clemson 0.8458 0.8036 0.0422 4 0 0.845837056
4 20 16 Penn St. 0.8204 0.8204 0 3 1 0.902456591
-6 11 17 Georgia Tech 0.8003 0.8866 -0.0863 3 1 0.880324415
7 25 18 Michigan St. 0.7781 0.7781 0 3 1 0.855926884
7 26 19 Cincinnati 0.7757 0.7757 0 3 1 0.853283935
7 27 20 Texas Tech 0.7746 0.7746 0 4 0 0.774616466
8 29 21 Missouri 0.7678 0.7731 -0.0053 4 0 0.767834937
8 30 22 Iowa 0.7654 0.7658 -0.0004 4 1 0.86113103
-15 8 23 LSU 0.761 0.9148 -0.1538 4 1 0.856069299
7 31 24 Houston 0.7254 0.748 -0.0226 4 0 0.725372094
-7 18 25 Oklahoma St. 0.7216 0.8253 -0.1037 3 1 0.793786879
6 32 26 Georgia 0.7209 0.7478 -0.0269 3 1 0.792970766
-12 15 27 Arizona 0.7193 0.8452 -0.1259 3 1 0.791219199
8 36 28 Northwestern 0.7175 0.7175 0 4 0 0.717506783
6 35 29 Virginia Tech 0.709 0.7317 -0.0227 4 1 0.797679086
-11 19 30 Wisconsin 0.709 0.8232 -0.1142 3 2 0.886256807
16 47 31 North Carolina St. 0.703 0.6662 0.0368 3 1 0.773254882
8 40 32 Rutgers 0.7011 0.7011 0 3 1 0.771257754
6 39 33 Auburn 0.7009 0.7012 -0.0003 3 1 0.771043258
8 42 34 Mississippi St. 0.6971 0.6971 0 2 2 0.836462521
-19 16 35 Southern California 0.6941 0.8405 -0.1464 3 2 0.867670968
2 38 36 South Carolina 0.6835 0.7069 -0.0234 3 1 0.75182104
6 43 37 Marshall 0.6833 0.6833 0 2 2 0.820014768
-16 22 38 UCF 0.6726 0.8173 -0.1447 3 1 0.739833155
7 46 39 Utah 0.6687 0.6687 0 3 1 0.735574457
-16 24 40 Ole Miss 0.661 0.7826 -0.1216 3 1 0.727071763
10 51 41 Bowling Green 0.6526 0.6497 0.0029 4 1 0.734199712
8 50 42 Wyoming 0.6516 0.6516 0 3 1 0.716781501
9 52 43 Kansas 0.6491 0.6491 0 2 1 0.697813288
10 54 44 Nebraska 0.6482 0.6482 0 3 1 0.713049885
10 55 45 Texas 0.6453 0.6453 0 2 2 0.774411318
-1 45 46 Arizona St. 0.6437 0.6725 -0.0288 3 1 0.708107812
2 49 47 Utah St. 0.6397 0.6613 -0.0216 3 2 0.7996095
-7 41 48 Navy 0.6375 0.7006 -0.0631 2 1 0.685273752
49 98 49 Northern Ill. 0.6372 0.476 0.1612 4 0 0.637222403
3 53 50 Texas A&M 0.6325 0.6483 -0.0158 4 1 0.711615833
-18 33 51 Colorado 0.6263 0.747 -0.1207 2 1 0.673244186
7 59 52 Pittsburgh 0.625 0.618 0.007 3 1 0.68750698
15 68 53 Illinois 0.6218 0.5842 0.0376 3 1 0.684016812
3 57 54 Memphis 0.6212 0.6212 0 1 2 0.714373586
-21 34 55 Minnesota 0.6188 0.7331 -0.1143 4 1 0.696097095
-28 28 56 Arkansas 0.6158 0.7734 -0.1576 3 2 0.769770914
12 69 57 BYU 0.611 0.5832 0.0278 2 2 0.733206552
3 61 58 East Carolina 0.6107 0.6122 -0.0015 3 1 0.671756826
3 62 59 Syracuse 0.6097 0.6102 -0.0005 2 2 0.731601638
-23 37 60 Notre Dame 0.6056 0.7165 -0.1109 3 2 0.757039306
3 64 61 Texas St. 0.6021 0.6021 0 2 1 0.647278203
15 77 62 Fresno St. 0.5926 0.5657 0.0269 4 0 0.592589684
0 63 63 Tennessee 0.5919 0.6043 -0.0124 3 2 0.739846466
-16 48 64 Virginia 0.5917 0.6657 -0.074 2 2 0.710008667
9 74 65 TCU 0.5863 0.5734 0.0129 2 2 0.703579777
-1 65 66 Ball St. 0.5825 0.5999 -0.0174 4 1 0.655284131
3 70 67 Kansas St. 0.5813 0.5813 0 2 2 0.697524745
8 76 68 Vanderbilt 0.5647 0.5662 -0.0015 3 2 0.705933796
13 82 69 Boise St. 0.5591 0.551 0.0081 3 2 0.698922947
8 78 70 Indiana 0.5572 0.5572 0 2 2 0.66864864
-5 66 71 West Virginia 0.5561 0.5906 -0.0345 3 2 0.695102288
8 80 72 Western Ky. 0.5534 0.5541 -0.0007 3 2 0.691800985
12 85 73 Oregon St. 0.5519 0.5362 0.0157 4 1 0.620858189
7 81 74 Ohio 0.551 0.551 0 3 1 0.606069817
8 83 75 La.-Lafayette 0.5476 0.5476 0 2 2 0.657112909
3 79 76 UNLV 0.543 0.5542 -0.0112 3 2 0.67870173
-4 73 77 Duke 0.5415 0.5746 -0.0331 3 2 0.676838203
13 91 78 Iowa St. 0.5343 0.521 0.0133 1 2 0.614494213
15 94 79 Tulane 0.5253 0.5164 0.0089 3 2 0.656615658
-36 44 80 Washington St. 0.5194 0.6758 -0.1564 3 2 0.649277963
-25 56 81 South Ala. 0.5191 0.6273 -0.1082 2 2 0.622874409
-15 67 82 Boston College 0.5084 0.5883 -0.0799 2 2 0.610048946
-23 60 83 Kentucky 0.5081 0.615 -0.1069 1 3 0.660482892
8 92 84 Rice 0.5077 0.5206 -0.0129 2 2 0.60927634
11 96 85 Nevada 0.487 0.4876 -0.0006 3 2 0.608711404
-15 71 86 North Carolina 0.4793 0.5801 -0.1008 1 3 0.623066893
-29 58 87 North Texas 0.476 0.6188 -0.1428 2 2 0.571153354
-13 75 88 Middle Tenn. 0.4734 0.5713 -0.0979 3 2 0.591762963
-5 84 89 UTEP 0.4629 0.537 -0.0741 1 3 0.601726661
3 93
