ONLY 157 DAYS UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF ARKANSAS FOOTBALL FOR 2010!
Christmas is here, just in time for Easter!
And I’m AMPed !!
Over the last few months, as time permitted, I’ve worked on an “SEC Scoring Database.” It’s a decent, workable, but unfinished, version of the SEC West game-by-game team stats, and more, for the last 10 years.
Of all places, Hog Database ought to be able to bring to you all sorts of stats which you’re not likely to get anywhere else.
As a fan base, we can’t begin to address reasonable performance expectations until we know both the most basic facts of winning in the SEC and some of winning’s intricacies.
We need to learn the answers to many questions, like (some of which are addressed below) are there minimum performance standards in the SEC West, below which, NO Team has ever won the SEC West? What are those standards? Are the Razorbacks meeting those standards? Are they exceeding those standards? Where do the Hogs need improvement and by how much? What about Arkansas’ next opponent? Is there a team coming up which is “showing” to be much better than everyone else believes? Are the next guys really just pretenders?
But beyond those questions, we need to know whether some “current idea” can be shown to be correct or just a bunch of hooey like was done with “You Can’t Get There from Here!” or with “Arkansas Straight Up Against No. 1 Florida!” Why speculate if we can take a few minutes to learn the answer?
We need to know the truth because it’s our best friend and worst enemy in terms of setting expectations for Our Razorbacks.
The SEC West data alone is 480 Rows on an Excel Spreadsheet representing the offensive stats for each team in every SEC regular season game played since 2000. The Columns begin at A and end at DL which follows A-Z, AA-AZ, BB-BZ, etc. for a total of 116 columns wide while only a handful of the columns compute a number needed to compute the more important piece of information.
To start to begin to address the questions above, we have 6 teams in the SEC West which leads to the really easy conclusion that over the last 10 years we’ve had 60 final SEC regular season records. For all teams, how many of those records are winning records?
It’s 25 out of 60, or roughly 42%. Of those 25, 10 of them were records of 5-3.
SEC West Winning Records & Stats 2000-2009
|Year||PF per GM. Season Av.||PA per Game Season Av.||Team||Conf. Wins||Conf. Losses|
Sort Data As You Like
(Like anyone, I know I can make mistakes. If you locate one, please let me know, and I’ll get it corrected.)
Teams with a winning record averaged 26 points per game in SEC play (always read regular season) while allowing opponents about 17 points per game. The 2007 LSU squad was the most extreme in two respects. It scored the most points per SEC game than any other SEC West team in the last 10 years averaging 37 ppg in route to a 6-2 SEC record (losing to Kentucky and Arkansas in two 3 overtime games.) On the other hand, the same LSU squad gave up 27 points per game.
Auburn has been the cheapest winner in the SEC. Auburn’s 2001 team managed a 5-3 SEC record while scoring 19 points per game and giving up 24 points per game… go figure!
How did Arkansas compare last year? Arkansas scored 234 points in SEC play while giving up 233 points. It’s an average of 29 points per game either way. From above, you’d be correct in saying that no SEC West team in the last 10 years has had a winning conference record when giving up 29 points per game. While the 2007 LSU team gave up the highest average number of points in conference play at 27, the 2003 LSU team holds down the other end. It yielded only 8 points per game. (Yep, that was Saban coaching them!)
If you’d like something to begin salivating about as if you’re one of Petrinov’s Hogs, how ’bout this? Only 4 squads in the last 10 years have bettered Arkansas’s 2009 point production of 29 points per game in SEC play. (2007 LSU — 37.3 ppg., 2005 Auburn — 32.8 ppg., Alabama 2008 — 31.9 ppg., 2004 Auburn — 30.9 ppg.) With so much of Arkansas’ offense returning from last year, coupled with the likely improvement that it will show, it’s not a guess that next year has the potential to be something special.
Keep in mind that the numbers above were only for the 25 teams who finished with winning records over the last 10 years. Looking at ALL SEC West Schools, winners average 30 points per game while losers average 16 points per game.
The nine-point difference in games involving those with winning records and the fourteen-point difference involving all SEC West schools is huge and illustrates an important point. A mistake that causes a swing of a single touchdown leaves the winner, a loser now. In the latter, a swing of 1 touchdown leaves a tie game! If you’ve ever imagined that teams play division leaders or winning teams harder in the SEC, you don’t have to imagine anymore.
If there’s a stat which you’d like to hear about, please feel free to post a facebook note or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.