The Most Important Game on Arkansas’ Schedule

Which is the Most Important Game or Games on Arkansas’ 2010 Football Schedule?
Consider these possible answers:
A. Georgia
B. Alabama
C. The 1st Four SEC Games
D. All SEC Games
E. The Next SEC Game

2010 Date	Opponent	Location	Time	Television
Sat., Sep. 04	Tennessee Tech	Fayetteville, Ark.	6 p.m.	PPV
Sat., Sep. 11	Louisiana-Monroe	Little Rock, Ark.	6 p.m.	FSN
Sat., Sep. 18	Georgia *	at Athens, Ga.	11 a.m.	ESPN or ESPN2
Sat., Sep. 25	Alabama *	Fayetteville, Ark.	TBA
Sat., Oct 09	Texas A&M	at Arlington, Texas	TBA
Sat., Oct. 16	Auburn *	at Auburn, Ala.	TBA
Sat., Oct. 23	Ole Miss *	Fayetteville, Ark.	TBA
Sat., Oct. 30	Vanderbilt - Homecoming *	Fayetteville, Ark.	TBA
Sat., Nov. 06	South Carolina *	at Columbia, SC	TBA
Sat., Nov. 13	UTEP	Fayetteville, Ark.	TBA
Sat., Nov. 20	Mississippi State *	at Starkville, MS	TBA
Sat., Nov. 27	LSU *	Little Rock, Ark.	TBA
* Conference Games	2010 Razorback Football Schedule

Some believe that the Georgia game is the most important. Georgia would get the conference season started off right and would be huge for the confidence of the team leading up to a showdown with Alabama. Being the helpful folks we are at Hog Database, we’ll give them a hand. Maybe someone’s mentioned it, but it would be nice for Arkansas to reverse Georgia’s stranglehold on wins. Since 2000 Arkansas is 0-4 against the Bulldogs. Maybe the Georgia game is the most important.

Some believe that the Arkansas-Alabama game must be the most important. Make no mistake here. Arkansas’ 35-7 loss could have easily been worse for the simple reason that despite improvements in a number of areas by the Alabama game, the Tide was capable of airing-out the ball almost at will in the second half and didn’t. On the other hand, it states the obvious to say that the 14-0 defending BCS Champions from 2009 must be beat for Arkansas to challenge for first in the SEC West. If Arkansas doesn’t beat ‘Bama, the Hogs would have to rely on TWO of ‘Bama’s other SEC opponents (Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi St., and Auburn) to beat the Tide for Arkansas to win the West, and Arkansas would have to win-out in conference play. Otherwise ‘Bama would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Arkansas. Proponents of the Alabama game rightfully see the size of the task and the implications for an SEC West Championship to label the Arkansas-Alabama game “the most important” on the Hogs’ schedule. But there’s a better answer out there.

Have you ever considered whether some part of Arkansas’ football schedule is more challenging than another so that those games are the most important?

Here’s another pinch-yourself stat from the early version of the SEC Scoring Database.

In 9 of the last 10 seasons, Arkansas finished the first half of its SEC Schedule with a record of no better than 1-3. With the sole exception of 2006, Arkansas didn’t even split the first-half season games with SEC opponents.

1st Half	W	L	2nd Half
1	4	0	1
	3	1	4
	2	2	4
8	1	3	1
1	0	4	0

That’s not good. Since 2003 only LSU’s 2007 squad has turned a 6-2 record into a trip to the SEC Championship Game.

Putting the two together, under current standards, the Hogs would have been out of the SEC West race through the first half of the conference schedule in 9 of the last 10 years.

On the other hand, the Hogs have a 3-1 or 4-0 record in 50% of their last 4 regular-season conference games over the last ten years. The Hogs have done no worse than splitting the second-half conference games in 90% of the last ten years and haven’t lost their final 4 SEC games since 2000.

If you conclude that Arkansas’ first four conference games are the most important games on its schedule, maybe you’re right. Well… almost right…

With 6 of the last 7 SEC West Conference Champions turning in conference records of 7-1 or 8-0, there’s no difference between losing to Alabama or to Mississippi State. SEC West Champion Profile v. 2009-2010 Arkansas Razorbacks

A Correct Answer is “All of the Above” with an even more precise answer being “The Next SEC Game!”

1st Half Conference Results

Date	Team	PF	PA	Opponent	W	L
10/17/2009	Arkansas	20	23	Florida	0	1
10/10/2009	Arkansas	44	23	Auburn	1	0
9/26/2009	Arkansas	7	35	Alabama	0	1
9/19/2009	Arkansas	41	52	Georgia	0	1
					1	3
10/18/2008	Arkansas	20	21	Kentucky	0	1
10/11/2008	Arkansas	25	22	Auburn	1	0
10/4/2008	Arkansas	7	38	Florida	0	1
9/20/2008	Arkansas	14	49	Alabama	0	1
					1	3
10/20/2007	Arkansas	44	8	Mississippi	1	0
10/13/2007	Arkansas	7	9	Auburn	0	1
9/22/2007	Arkansas	29	42	Kentucky	0	1
9/15/2007	Arkansas	38	41	Alabama	0	1
					1	3
11/4/2006	Arkansas	26	20	South Carolina	1	0
10/21/2006	Arkansas	38	3	Mississippi	1	0
10/7/2006	Arkansas	27	10	Auburn	1	0
9/23/2006	Arkansas	24	23	Alabama	1	0
9/16/2006	Arkansas	21	19	Vanderbilt	1	0
					4	0
10/22/2005	Arkansas	20	23	Georgia	0	1
10/15/2005	Arkansas	17	34	Auburn	0	1
9/24/2005	Arkansas	13	24	Alabama	0	1
9/10/2005	Arkansas	24	28	Vanderbilt	0	1
					0	4
10/23/2004	Arkansas	14	20	Georgia	0	1
10/16/2004	Arkansas	20	38	Auburn	0	1
10/2/2004	Arkansas	30	45	Florida	0	1
9/25/2004	Arkansas	27	10	Alabama	1	0
					1	3
10/25/2003	Arkansas	7	19	Mississippi	0	1
10/18/2003	Arkansas	28	33	Florida	0	1
10/11/2003	Arkansas	3	10	Auburn	0	1
9/27/2003	Arkansas	34	31	Alabama	1	0
					1	3
10/19/2002	Arkansas	17	29	Kentucky	0	1
10/12/2002	Arkansas	38	17	Auburn	1	0
10/5/2002	Arkansas	38	41	Tennessee	0	1
9/28/2002	Arkansas	12	30	Alabama	0	1
					1	3
10/13/2001	Arkansas	10	7	South Carolina	1	0
9/29/2001	Arkansas	23	34	Georgia	0	1
9/22/2001	Arkansas	10	31	Alabama	0	1
9/8/2001	Arkansas	3	13	Tennessee	0	1
					1	3
10/28/2000	Arkansas	19	21	Auburn	0	1
10/14/2000	Arkansas	7	27	South Carolina	0	1
9/30/2000	Arkansas	7	38	Georgia	0	1
9/23/2000	Arkansas	28	21	Alabama	1	0
					1	3

2nd Half Conference Results

Date	Team	PF	PA	Opponent	W	L
11/28/2009	Arkansas	30	33	LSU	0	1
11/21/2009	Arkansas	42	21	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/7/2009	Arkansas	33	16	South Carolina	1	0
10/24/2009	Arkansas	17	30	Mississippi	0	1
					2	2
11/28/2008	Arkansas	31	30	LSU	1	0
11/22/2008	Arkansas	28	31	Mississippi St.	0	1
11/8/2008	Arkansas	21	34	South Carolina	0	1
10/25/2008	Arkansas	21	23	Mississippi	0	1
					1	3
11/23/2007	Arkansas	50	48	LSU	1	0
11/17/2007	Arkansas	45	31	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/10/2007	Arkansas	13	34	Tennessee	0	1
11/3/2007	Arkansas	48	36	South Carolina	1	0
					3	1
11/24/2006	Arkansas	26	31	LSU	0	1
11/18/2006	Arkansas	28	14	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/11/2006	Arkansas	31	14	Tennessee	1	0
11/4/2006	Arkansas	26	20	South Carolina	1	0
					3	1
11/25/2005	Arkansas	17	19	LSU	0	1
11/19/2005	Arkansas	44	10	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/12/2005	Arkansas	28	17	Mississippi	1	0
11/5/2005	Arkansas	10	14	South Carolina	0	1
					2	2
11/26/2004	Arkansas	14	43	LSU	0	1
11/20/2004	Arkansas	24	21	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/13/2004	Arkansas	35	3	Mississippi	1	0
11/6/2004	Arkansas	32	35	South Carolina	0	1
					2	2
11/28/2003	Arkansas	24	55	LSU	0	1
11/22/2003	Arkansas	52	6	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/6/2003	Arkansas	28	6	South Carolina	1	0
11/1/2003	Arkansas	71	63	Kentucky	1	0
					3	1
11/29/2002	Arkansas	21	20	LSU	1	0
11/23/2002	Arkansas	26	19	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/9/2002	Arkansas	23	0	South Carolina	1	0
10/26/2002	Arkansas	48	28	Mississippi	1	0
					4	0
11/23/2001	Arkansas	38	41	LSU	0	1
11/17/2001	Arkansas	24	21	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/3/2001	Arkansas	58	56	Mississippi	1	0
10/27/2001	Arkansas	42	17	Auburn	1	0
					3	1
11/24/2000	Arkansas	14	3	LSU	1	0
11/18/2000	Arkansas	17	10	Mississippi St.	1	0
11/11/2000	Arkansas	20	63	Tennessee	0	1
11/4/2000	Arkansas	24	38	Mississippi	0	1
					2	2