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You are here: Home / 2010 / August / 31 / Arkansas v. Tennessee Tech plus When Time of Possession Matters

Arkansas v. Tennessee Tech plus When Time of Possession Matters

By Sharp "Tusk" Williams on August 31, 2010

Arkansas needs work on several things against a warm-bodied opponent, even if won’t be their numbers in some BCS computer rankings. DI-AA Tennessee Tech University comes to Fayetteville from Cookeville, Tennessee, roughly 80 miles east of Nashville along I-40. The Golden Eagles have a student body of around 11,000 students and a stadium which holds 16,500 people. Out of the Ohio Valley Conference which is probably known better for basketball (Austin Peay, TN Martin, SE Missouri State, Murray St., et al.) TTU managed a 6-5 record last year with losses to BCS opponents Georgia (38-0) and probably-glad-to-pick-on-someone-not-their-size Kansas St. (49-7) in 2009. The only other SEC school Tennessee Tech has played in the last 10 years was Auburn in 2007 (AP #19, BCS#16) in a game TTU lost 35-3.

Arkansas has never played Tennessee Tech according to our own Hog Database Research Wizard.

Tennessee Tech football sports Head Coach Watson Brown, the former Vanderbilt head coach, but other than that, they don’t seem too interested. Their alumni can’t seem to mention the game on their facebook page (at least as of this writing). Playing this school is like gripping a flaccid handshake.

The Hogs should have modest goals on Saturday because there will be nothing on the field to prove. Feel free to make additional suggestions:

(1) the first team will get its positioning, alignment, and timing down in game situations;
(2) substitutions and assignments are worked through;
(3) get the game far out of reach in the first half;
(4) suffer no injuries;
(5) play Mallett no more than 30 minutes, if that;
(6) let everyone who needs experience, like Leon, Winston, Rasner, etc. get more than a quarter of playing time.

When Time of Possession Matters

Be skeptical when you hear a “key to the game” or a “key to the season” involving time of possession.

“If the opposing offense isn’t on the field, it doesn’t score”… wait…Did you finish the statement to the logical conclusion in your mind? “…which will provide the team controlling the ball an advantage by limiting the opponent’s points and increasing its own points which better enables the team to win.”

For a Season

After the official NCAA time of possession statistics for the last 5 college football seasons (2005-2009) for all DI-A schools were combined, averaged and dissected, a few things are abundantly clear from the season averages for 594 season records over some 7400 game records (actually it was 7399 but I ain’t hunting down the one).

Over the course of a season, average time of possession of 30 minutes per game or more carries an even record or better in 70% of the seasons. But we aren’t looking to break even. Arkansas Fans want to know about ranges associated with winning 9 games or more per season. At 30 minutes or more per game, 38% of the teams (112 of 298) won 9 games or more.

As any fan might expect, as the average time of possession per game over the course of a season increases, so does the likelihood of having a better season. Increasing time of possession by 1.5 minutes to a minimum of 31:30 per game, teams who were able to do so logged 9 or more wins 47.7% of the time. But time of possession doesn’t cure all ills. Even for times of possession between 31:30 and 31:59 per game for an entire season, 17 teams still managed losing seasons.

Only a few ticks higher at 32:00 or more per game does the stat equate with winning 9 games or more better than 50% of the time. 52 teams over the last five years have achieved that level and for 32 of them (61.5%) the reward was a nine-game or better winning season. In the same range, only two teams had losing seasons.

Below is a chart of the time range of a team’s average offensive time of possession per season followed by the number of teams falling into the particular time range along with a compilation of their seasons’ records.

TimeRange (Min)# of Seasons10+Wins9+ WinsEven+Losing
35.0035.4911000
34.0034.0010100
33.5033.9974210
33.0033.4974201
32.5032.99166340
32.0032.492054101
31.5031.99471051517
31.0031.4956872021
30.5030.996718102118
30.0030.49761662232
29.5029.9969472335
29.0029.4964481933
28.5028.9967971437
28.0028.492925715
27.5027.9935121220
27.0027.491700413
26.5026.9942002
26.0026.4982006
25.5025.9910001
25.0025.4922000

Sort as you like.

Over 2009 Arkansas averaged 28:50 seconds for time of possession for the season and 30:26 the year before.

If you think for a moment, which of Arkansas’ last two offenses was better? 2009’s, of course. The fact that Arkansas’ time of possession was lower last year would seem to fly in the face of trend above. Arkansas won more games as our time of possession went down. Higher times of possession will sometimes equate with defensive efficiency while lower times of possession equate with a higher level of offensive efficiency. At the extremes, TCU’s 2008 team averaged more than 35 minutes per game on offense. The hallmark of that team was its Defense. On the other end, the 2009 Cincinnati and 2008 Oregon teams averaged times of possession less than 25:30 average time of possession for the season while racking up records of 12-1 and 10-3 respectively. Both were known for explosive offenses.

Below 30 minutes of time of possession per game, teams managed to win 9 games or more 19% of the time while losing records were 55% of the entries.

Arkansas’ 2009 average time of possession is in the lower half’s statistical sweet spot if there is such a thing. For times between 28:00 and 28:59 per game teams posted 9 or more wins about 24% of the time. The rate of teams winning 9 or more games goes down between 29:00 and 29:59 and then only picks up to 29% of the teams winning 9 or more games in the range of 30:00 to 30:29. Before hitting the extremes, teams between 30:30 and 30:59 make up another sweet spot by having 9 or more wins 42% of the time.

Broad statements over seasons don’t tell us anything about particular games though.

Bobby Petrino and Time of Possession

For Coach Petrino’s 4 years at Louisville and 2 years at Arkansas as a Head Coach, here are his games, the time of possession for each and whether each was won or lost.

YearArkansas or Louisville Opp.Time of Poss.WL
2006Wake Forest38.601
2009Auburn38.451
2005Pitt37.171
2004Army36.501
2004North Carolina36.501
2008Kentucky36.021
2006USF35.651
2006Temple35.351
2005Kentucky35.331
2004USF35.131
2008Auburn35.031
2008Alabama34.771
2006Middle Tennessee34.581
2004Kentucky34.471
2005USF33.931
2005Rutgers33.731
2004Boise State33.581
2004Tulane33.301
2008Louisiana Monroe32.701
2003Tulane32.701
2008Tulsa32.631
2006Kentucky32.401
2009South Carolina32.381
2009Troy32.021
2004Memphis31.821
2008LSU31.751
2006Kansas State31.701
2003USF31.301
2003Syracuse31.131
2005West Virginia30.931
2008South Carolina30.901
2009LSU30.551
2003ECU30.551
2009Missouri St.30.401
2003TCU30.381
2004Miami (FL)30.301
2006UCONN30.131
2003Kentucky30.101
2005UCONN29.721
2003Houston29.701
2006Pitt29.581
2003UTEP29.451
2008Mississippi St.29.421
2003Miami (OH)29.131
2003Temple28.921
2009Florida28.671
2006Miami (FL)28.571
2004TCU28.451
2005Syracuse28.351
2009Georgia28.131
2006Syracuse28.101
2004Houston28.071
2006Cinncinati27.871
2009Texas A&M27.781
2009Eastern Michigan27.721
2009Mississippi St.27.601
2005North Carolina27.371
2008Florida26.831
2009Alabama26.401
2008Mississippi26.171
2004ECU26.151
2003Army26.131
2003Cincinnati26.121
2008Texas25.681
2006Rutgers25.401
2005Virginia Tech23.651
2005FAU23.451
2008Western Illinios23.351
2006W. Virginia23.281
2005Cincinnati23.021
2009Mississippi22.781
2003Memphis22.531
2010East Carolina22.081
2005Oregon St.20.601
2004Cincinnati18.351

Bobby Petrino TOP Game by Game

Over 75 games, Coach Petrino’s head coaching record is 54-21 (72%) regardless of time of possession. At the high, his 2006 Louisville team held the ball for more than 38.5 minutes against Wake Forest. His 2004 squad really wanted some bench time against Cincinnati. It kept the ball fewer than 18.5 minutes in route to a 70-7 win.

38 of Coach Petrino’s games have times of possession above 30:00, making 37 games below. Of the 38 games above 30:00, his squads are 29-9 or 76%. Below 30 minutes per game, his Arkansas and Louisville teams have won 25 of 37 (68%).

Time BeginTime End# of GamesWL
3839220
3738110
3637321
3536550
3435321
3334431
3233660
3132541
3031945
2930642
2829862
2728550
2627633
2526202
2425000
2324541
2223312
2122000
2021110
1920000
1819110

Ark./ UL ToP Summary

But the experience of Coach Petrino’s games tracks the national averages, only at different values. Arkansas’ 2009 time of possession of 28:30 was in a “sweet spot nationally” but the national stats suggest that increasing the time of possession wasn’t necessarily better unless Arkansas added at least a minute and a half to more than 30 minutes. Nationally, holding the ball for 29 to 30 minutes was statistically worse.

But past experience for Petrino’s squads at both Louisville and Arkansas suggests that adding 1.5 minutes might not be a good thing either. For any 1 minute time segment from 18 to 19 minutes up to 38 to 39 minutes, the range between 30-31 minutes is the only one where Coach Petrino has a losing record at 4-5. Between 30:30 and 30:59 his teams are 1-3.

However, above 31 minutes per game, the sky is the limit. His teams have won at an 86% rate.

At Arkansas alone Coach Petrino’s teams are 7-2 (78%) when holding the ball more than 31 minutes. Above 30 minutes (technically 30:25) Arkansas is 8-4 (67%). Below 30 minutes, Arkansas has a 5-8 (38%) record with 3 wins occurring when Arkansas holds the ball between 27-28 minutes per game. Off that mark, Arkansas is 0-3 in games where it has the ball 26-27 minutes (one minute shorter) and 0-3 in games 28-30 minutes (up to two minutes longer).

Pick a perspective, whichever one suits you best, national, Louisville and Arkansas, or Arkansas alone. However it’s accomplished on the field and whether its driven by the offense grinding out the ball or the defense becoming more efficient, time of possession only really starts to matter at 31 minutes or more per game for a Bobby Petrino offense at Arkansas.

When game time comes, the concept of time of possession takes a back seat to scoring the most points and moving the ball up the field whether it’s through the air or on the ground. We can talk about improving Arkansas’ rushing all we want, but we’ve seen enough from Coach Petrino to know that he’s not insane. If some scheme isn’t working, he’s not going to continue to employ it on the offensive side of the ball expecting a different result. If he’s getting 3 yards on the ground and 6 in the air, the mix of plays will be different than if both were netting 5 yards a play. From the offensive side of the ball, the time of possession won’t likely increase unless the option of running the ball is almost as attractive and effective as throwing the ball to Childs, Adams, Wright, Williams, etc. As we can see from his Cincinnati experience above, the issue isn’t one of time of possession as much as it is of offensive scoring efficiency until his offenses are holding the ball 31 minutes or more.

While increasing the time of possession is ultimately favorable, in all likelihood the increase needs to be driven by the Defense in terms of quicker stops against opposing offenses as opposed to the offense trying to “grind out” yardage and adding an extra play or two to 10 different drives. More drives would be the preferable way, and the offense can’t create that.

Listen closely to whatever comes after “Arkansas needs to increase its time of possession.” It will probably be a better indicator of how astute the media person is rather than an indicator of how the game should go.

Posted in Razorback History | Tagged Arkansas Football, Arkansas Razorback, Arkansas Razorback Football, Arkansas Razorbacks, Bobby Petrino, Razorback, Razorback Football, Razorbacks Football, SEC, Time of Possession

Article written by Sharp "Tusk" Williams

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.

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  • SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.
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