It will probably be said and disputed that this Week’s matchup between Alabama and LSU is the National Championship Game. No matter how one looks at it, these two teams fit the profile of the composite BCS Champion almost to a T. Both have over-the-top stifling defenses which are complemented with strong, efficient, and controlling offenses. In the Performance Index below, Alabama’s .968 and LSU’s .947 ratings are not the same as saying that Alabama and LSU meet the composite BCS Champion profile in 96.8% and 94.7% of all respects, but it might as well be the case.
From the way that the College Football Champion Index is calculated, off weeks may change a team’s rating, and hence ranking. A correction has been made in that regard, but it does nothing to change last week or the effect of the off week for both teams. Alabama’s raw numbers left some in reserve to better compensate for the off week than did LSU’s. For that reason, Alabama slips ahead of LSU. Either way, the differences between the two are negligible.
College Football Champion Index™ Week 9
PR Change PI Change Wk. 8 PR Wk. 8 PI PR Performance CFCI Week 9 Elimination ER Wk. 8 EI Wk. 8 ER EI Change ER Change
1 -0.017 2 0.985 1 0.968 Alabama 0.968 1 0.985 2 -0.017 1
-1 -0.042 1 0.989 2 0.947 LSU 0.947 2 0.989 1 -0.042 -1
4 0.000 7 0.903 3 0.903 Boise St. 0.903 3 0.903 4 0.000 1
-3 -0.069 4 0.951 7 0.882 Stanford 0.882 4 0.951 3 -0.069 -1
-6 -0.036 22 0.852 28 0.816 Houston 0.816 5 0.852 6 -0.036 1
-4 -0.031 29 0.838 33 0.807 Oklahoma St. 0.807 6 0.838 8 -0.031 2
3 -0.006 8 0.902 5 0.896 Cincinnati 0.597 7 0.601 11 -0.004 4
-2 -0.037 6 0.918 8 0.882 Virginia Tech 0.588 8 0.612 10 -0.024 2
-1 -0.026 10 0.891 11 0.865 Penn St. 0.577 9 0.594 13 -0.017 4
10 0.012 25 0.846 15 0.858 Michigan 0.572 10 0.564 18 0.008 8
-6 -0.042 12 0.883 18 0.841 Oregon 0.561 11 0.589 14 -0.028 3
1 -0.015 20 0.855 19 0.841 South Carolina 0.561 12 0.570 17 -0.010 5
-7 -0.034 13 0.874 20 0.840 Oklahoma 0.560 13 0.583 15 -0.022 2
-4 -0.027 17 0.859 21 0.832 Southern Miss. 0.555 14 0.573 16 -0.018 2
-13 -0.049 18 0.857 31 0.808 Kansas St. 0.539 15 0.857 5 -0.318 -10
-8 -0.039 26 0.846 34 0.806 Clemson 0.537 16 0.846 7 -0.308 -9
0 -0.005 43 0.784 43 0.779 Nebraska 0.519 17 0.523 19 -0.003 2
-2 -0.005 51 0.773 53 0.768 Arkansas 0.512 18 0.515 20 -0.003 2
10 0.021 19 0.856 9 0.876 Georgia 0.438 19 0.428 24 0.010 5
-1 -0.031 9 0.898 10 0.867 Michigan St. 0.434 20 0.599 12 -0.165 -8
18 0.040 32 0.822 14 0.861 Arkansas St. 0.431 21 0.411 26 0.020 5
-13 -0.100 3 0.957 16 0.857 Wisconsin 0.428 22 0.638 9 -0.209 -13
14 0.026 37 0.796 23 0.823 Arizona St. 0.411 23 0.398 30 0.013 7
4 -0.022 28 0.842 24 0.820 Georgia Tech 0.410 24 0.421 25 -0.011 1
-9 -0.043 16 0.862 25 0.819 TCU 0.410 25 0.431 23 -0.022 -2
29 0.049 56 0.768 27 0.816 Texas 0.408 26 0.384 36 0.024 10
3 0.007 58 0.760 55 0.767 La.-Lafayette 0.384 27 0.380 37 0.003 10
-21 -0.042 52 0.772 73 0.730 Washington 0.365 28 0.386 34 -0.021 6
1 -0.021 5 0.923 4 0.902 Temple 0.361 29 0.369 41 -0.008 12
5 0.000 11 0.885 6 0.885 Illinois 0.354 30 0.442 21 -0.089 -9
-3 -0.017 78 0.722 81 0.706 Wyoming 0.353 31 0.361 42 -0.008 11
-30 -0.065 55 0.769 85 0.703 West Virginia 0.352 32 0.384 35 -0.033 3
12 0.014 24 0.850 12 0.864 Florida St. 0.346 33 0.340 46 0.006 13
-3 -0.023 14 0.869 17 0.846 Ohio 0.338 34 0.348 43 -0.009 9
-3 -0.032 23 0.851 26 0.819 South Fla. 0.328 35 0.340 45 -0.013 10
17 0.033 47 0.779 30 0.812 FIU 0.325 36 0.312 51 0.013 15
3 0.006 35 0.801 32 0.807 BYU 0.323 37 0.400 28 -0.078 -9
3 0.010 38 0.794 35 0.803 Ohio St. 0.321 38 0.317 47 0.004 9
-21 -0.063 15 0.864 36 0.801 Texas A&M 0.320 39 0.432 22 -0.111 -17
-17 -0.061 21 0.854 38 0.794 Toledo 0.317 40 0.342 44 -0.024 4
3 0.006 42 0.787 39 0.792 Nevada 0.317 41 0.315 49 0.002 8
0 -0.005 41 0.790 41 0.785 Iowa 0.314 42 0.395 31 -0.081 -11
-8 -0.018 36 0.797 44 0.778 Baylor 0.311 43 0.398 29 -0.087 -14
-12 -0.035 34 0.811 46 0.776 Rutgers 0.310 44 0.406 27 -0.095 -17
32 0.055 80 0.720 48 0.775 North Carolina 0.310 45 0.288 62 0.022 17
15 0.030 64 0.745 49 0.775 Northern Ill. 0.310 46 0.298 57 0.012 11
-11 -0.021 40 0.791 51 0.770 Hawaii 0.308 47 0.316 48 -0.008 1
1 -0.002 53 0.771 52 0.769 Notre Dame 0.308 48 0.308 53 -0.001 5
9 0.013 63 0.755 54 0.768 San Diego St. 0.307 49 0.378 39 -0.070 -10
18 0.039 77 0.724 59 0.763 Auburn 0.305 50 0.290 61 0.016 11
-1 -0.001 60 0.757 61 0.756 Virginia 0.302 51 0.303 56 0.000 5
-18 -0.028 49 0.776 67 0.748 Syracuse 0.299 52 0.388 33 -0.089 -19
14 0.033 83 0.708 69 0.742 Eastern Mich. 0.297 53 0.283 64 0.013 11
-3 -0.004 68 0.742 71 0.739 Tulsa 0.295 54 0.297 58 -0.001 4
14 0.022 27 0.842 13 0.864 UCF 0.288 55 0.281 65 0.007 10
-31 -0.066 45 0.781 76 0.715 Texas Tech 0.286 56 0.391 32 -0.105 -24
-20 -0.045 59 0.759 79 0.714 SMU 0.286 57 0.380 38 -0.094 -19
-31 -0.057 66 0.744 97 0.687 Wake Forest 0.275 58 0.372 40 -0.097 -18
26 0.047 48 0.777 22 0.824 Louisville 0.275 59 0.259 70 0.016 11
10 0.024 39 0.791 29 0.815 Mississippi St. 0.272 60 0.264 68 0.008 8
-4 -0.021 33 0.820 37 0.799 Missouri 0.266 61 0.273 67 -0.007 6
22 0.030 62 0.755 40 0.786 Louisiana Tech 0.262 62 0.252 71 0.010 9
0 -0.001 50 0.773 50 0.772 California 0.257 63 0.309 52 -0.052 -11
0 0.001 57 0.763 57 0.764 Florida 0.255 64 0.305 55 -0.050 -9
-12 -0.016 46 0.780 58 0.764 Miami (FL) 0.255 65 0.312 50 -0.057 -15
-16 -0.022 44 0.782 60 0.760 Air Force 0.253 66 0.261 69 -0.007 3
8 0.010 70 0.740 62 0.751 Purdue 0.250 67 0.296 59 -0.046 -8
11 0.016 74 0.734 63 0.750 Utah 0.250 68 0.245 77 0.005 9
3 0.008 69 0.741 66 0.749 Pittsburgh 0.250 69 0.247 74 0.003 5
-14 -0.028 54 0.770 68 0.742 North Carolina St. 0.247 70 0.308 54 -0.061 -16
16 0.037 91 0.687 75 0.724 Ball St. 0.241 71 0.275 66 -0.033 -5
19 0.049 97 0.666 78 0.715 East Carolina 0.238 72 0.222 85 0.016 13
-2 -0.006 82 0.710 84 0.704 Vanderbilt 0.235 73 0.284 63 -0.049 -10
-17 -0.044 73 0.738 90 0.694 UTEP 0.231 74 0.295 60 -0.064 -14
12 0.048 103 0.646 91 0.694 Iowa St. 0.231 75 0.215 88 0.016 13
-5 -0.008 87 0.700 92 0.692 Western Ky. 0.231 76 0.233 81 -0.003 5
-22 -0.048 72 0.739 94 0.692 Western Mich. 0.231 77 0.246 76 -0.016 -1
-3 0.015 100 0.659 103 0.675 UCLA 0.225 78 0.220 86 0.005 8
-12 -0.044 30 0.828 42 0.784 Utah St. 0.224 79 0.237 79 -0.013 0
20 0.033 65 0.744 45 0.777 Connecticut 0.222 80 0.248 72 -0.026 -8
5 0.010 61 0.755 56 0.766 Northwestern 0.219 81 0.216 87 0.003 6
27 0.068 92 0.681 65 0.749 Bowling Green 0.214 82 0.227 83 -0.013 1
-3 -0.002 67 0.743 70 0.741 Middle Tenn. 0.212 83 0.248 73 -0.036 -10
19 0.050 93 0.675 74 0.725 Colorado St. 0.207 84 0.225 84 -0.018 0
30 0.090 107 0.625 77 0.715 Marshall 0.204 85 0.179 103 0.026 18
-9 -0.027 71 0.740 80 0.713 New Mexico St. 0.204 86 0.247 75 -0.043 -11
2 -0.003 84 0.708 82 0.705 Fresno St. 0.201 87 0.202 94 -0.001 7
7 0.016 90 0.689 83 0.705 Duke 0.201 88 0.230 82 -0.028 -6
17 0.055 104 0.644 87 0.699 Miami (OH) 0.200 89 0.184 101 0.016 12
-9 -0.012 86 0.703 95 0.691 Tennessee 0.197 90 0.234 80 -0.037 -10
-26 -0.056 75 0.732 101 0.676 Washington St. 0.193 91 0.244 78 -0.051 -13
-8 0.000 98 0.665 106 0.665 Army 0.190 92 0.190 99 0.000 7
4 0.052 111 0.606 107 0.658 Kentucky 0.188 93 0.202 95 -0.014 2
17 0.029 81 0.720 64 0.749 La.-Monroe 0.187 94 0.206 92 -0.019 -2
4 0.002 76 0.730 72 0.732 Maryland 0.183 95 0.208 90 -0.026 -5
-4 0.009 110 0.613 114 0.622 Troy 0.178 96 0.204 93 -0.027 -3
-9 -0.009 106 0.631 115 0.622 San Jose St. 0.178 97 0.210 89 -0.033 -8
-3 -0.006 85 0.703 88 0.697 North Texas 0.174 98 0.201 96 -0.027 -2
-10 -0.026 79 0.721 89 0.695 Navy 0.174 99 0.206 91 -0.032 -8
13 0.070 109 0.619 96 0.689 Boston College 0.172 100 0.155 108 0.018 8
-2 0.016 96 0.670 98 0.686 Arizona 0.172 101 0.191 98 -0.020 -3
3 0.039 102 0.647 99 0.686 Central Mich. 0.171 102 0.162 107 0.010 5
1 0.056 119 0.540 118 0.596 UNLV 0.170 103 0.154 109 0.016 6
-13 -0.014 89 0.690 102 0.676 Oregon St. 0.169 104 0.197 97 -0.028 -7
-6 0.007 99 0.659 105 0.666 Rice 0.167 105 0.188 100 -0.022 -5
8 0.082 116 0.569 108 0.651 Kent St. 0.163 106 0.142 116 0.021 10
-4 0.018 105 0.632 109 0.650 Kansas 0.162 107 0.181 102 -0.018 -5
-2 0.024 108 0.620 110 0.644 Ole Miss 0.161 108 0.177 104 -0.016 -4
2 0.049 115 0.574 113 0.623 Minnesota 0.156 109 0.143 115 0.012 6
9 0.026 95 0.674 86 0.700 Buffalo 0.156 110 0.168 106 -0.013 -4
-16 -0.025 88 0.699 104 0.674 Tulane 0.150 111 0.175 105 -0.025 -6
6 0.083 117 0.560 111 0.643 Akron 0.143 112 0.140 117 0.003 5
2 0.064 114 0.577 112 0.641 Idaho 0.142 113 0.144 114 -0.002 1
1 0.017 94 0.674 93 0.692 Indiana 0.138 114 0.150 111 -0.012 -3
1 0.025 101 0.651 100 0.676 Colorado 0.135 115 0.145 113 -0.009 -2
-4 0.002 112 0.604 116 0.606 Memphis 0.135 116 0.151 110 -0.016 -6
3 0.064 120 0.533 117 0.597 Fla. Atlantic 0.133 117 0.119 119 0.014 2
-6 -0.002 113 0.585 119 0.583 UAB 0.130 118 0.146 112 -0.017 -6
-2 0.030 118 0.547 120 0.576 New Mexico 0.115 119 0.121 118 -0.006 -1
-16 -0.046 31 0.822 47 0.776 Southern California 0.000 120 0.000 120 0.000 0
Sort as you like.
** University of Southern California is banned from post season play and is not eligible for the BCS Title.
As against the AP and Coaches’ Polls the College Football Champion Index™ includes 22 of the Associated Press teams and 23 of the USA Today Coaches Poll Teams. The CFCI has 18 of the same teams that Jeff Sagarin has in his poll, but it remains to be seen this evening as to who is more accurate in predicting the BCS Poll.
For the Arkansas Razorbacks, wins ultimately make the difference because the Hogs are battered on the defensive side of the ball in the CFCI and with the weight provided to rushing categories. With the win over Vanderbilt, the Razorbacks move up two places in the CFCI to No. 18.
Playing strongly with good defense and a 6-2 overall record, the Arkansas State Red Wolves shouldn’t be far from attracting attention nationally. Because the CFCI applies the same performance calculation and elimination calculation (assessing losses) to every Division I football team, the Red Wolves have worked their way into the 21st position in the CFCI in the same system which has Alabama and LSU at No. 1 and No. 2 unlike other computer polls. It should be noted that the human polls all lagged behind on bringing Houston, Cincinnati, and Southern Mississippi into consideration whereas the computer polls, including the CFCI have taken the lead in assessing these teams.
College Football Championship Index Prior Weeks
Week 6
Explanation of the College Football Champion Index
