• Seasons

    from 1894 to 2011
  • Opponents

    all-time series records
  • Research

    Football game calculator
  • Records

    Arkansas Football Records
  • Helmets

    Razorback Helmet History
  • Recruiting

    Razorback Recruiting
Hog Database
Want More? Follow Hog Database:
Follow @HogDatabase
You are here: Home / 2014 / November / 01 / The College Football Champion Index — This is a Test, Only a Test

The College Football Champion Index — This is a Test, Only a Test

By Sharp "Tusk" Williams on November 1, 2014

I never really intended on running the College Football Champion Index this season because numbers needed to be updated, and I wasn’t going to be able to use it writing for that regional website that fired me and others after I worked there for almost a month.

With the release of the College Football Playoff Committee’s first rankings, I wondered how the CFCI’s analysis and system saw the teams as compared to the committee. For the most part, I left the calculation as it was last season, and input the data as of 10/25/2014. There was one important calculation which really needed modification last season which I took the opportunity to change.

The CFCI, probably more than other power ratings or rankings, focuses primarily on defensive stats because BCS Champions were demonstrably and consistently good at certain defensive statistical categories. However, the modified computation dealt with teams whose offenses were so prolific that they were winning without defense. Although a relatively small percentage of Division I teams get the benefit of the calculation, it applies equally to all. The problem with the calculation was that was possible that a single tenth of a point lower in the overall average for scoring offense could act like a cliff which could lower a team’s CFCI ranking dramatically from one week to the next for not meeting that standard even with a WIN. Graphically, the equation now slopes upward to a point for teams on the verge of the standard and then is flat for all teams which fully meet the scoring standard.

Without regard to whom a team plays, the team’s conference, quality wins or bad losses, the College Football Champion Index compares all 129 DI teams and provisional qualifiers to a statistical standard set by a composite BCS Champion derived from the BCS Champions’ year-long stats from 2000 through 2013.

The CFCI ranks 13 of the 25 teams within three places of the College Football Playoff Committee while clearly there are some wide variations.

The CFCI ranks Mississippi State No. 1 and Florida State No. 2. After that, the CFCI likes Alabama and Ohio State to round out the top four and isn’t nearly as enthusiastic about Ole Miss or Oregon as the Committee is.

Ole Miss has great defensive numbers, but the CFCI doesn’t consider how strong a defense is over a certain level. Offenses must produce well. Ole Miss’ deficits come in scoring offense (averaging 31.9 ppg) and an 80th ranking in rushing offense. Almost 32 points per game doesn’t get Ole Miss even on the beginning part of the slope described above so they get no benefit from increases that other teams above them received. In fact, based on defense and wins alone, Ole Miss would have been 8th. It costs them two spots. On the other hand Oregon’s defense is atrocious statistically being 106th in total defense and 114th in pass defense. However, Oregon gets the full benefit of the offensive calculation mentioned above averaging 45.5 ppg. Without it, the CFCI would have ranked Oregon 18th.

The CFCI places Georgia and Auburn at 5th and 6th followed by Nebraska and Marshall. Both Nebraska and Marshall do well across the categories. That said, usually late season losses will take care of those issues because it’s rare for teams to go undefeated through the regular season.

A couple of mentions otherwise are in order. Kansas State is alright in some categories while poor in some defensive categories. Their offensive production barely gets them a bump. Ultimately winning will move them up regardless of other evaluations. Arizona is a whopping 16 spots below the CFBPC evaluation. The Wildcats come in at 80th in scoring defense, 107th in pass efficiency defense, 97th in total defense, 120th in passing defense, while only ranking 40th in rushing offense and 36th in passing efficiency. That said, Arizona gets full credit for scoring offense and the increase that goes with it. The Wildcats aren’t the lowest-ranked one-loss team at 28th. That honor goes to Colorado State at 36th.

Although Marshall is probably ranked too high in the one instance where that the stats haven’t yet taken care of themselves, for the most part, no apologies are given. Wins, great defenses and explosive offenses make champions. Wins and being closer to the BCS Champion standards warrant higher rankings regardless of feelings.

College Football Championship Index

Wk. 10 RankTeamCFCI Wk. 10GWL
1Mississippi St.0.8781770
2Florida St.0.861770
3Alabama0.8496871
4Ohio St.0.8423761
5Georgia0.837761
6Auburn0.8172761
7Nebraska0.8163871
8Marshall0.7952880
9Michigan St.0.7873871
10Ole Miss0.7652871
11Oregon0.7567871
12Oklahoma0.7286752
13Notre Dame0.7228761
14Baylor0.7079761
15Utah0.6791761
16TCU0.6734761
17Arizona St.0.6699761
18Kansas St.0.6693761
19Wisconsin0.6609752
20Clemson0.6437862
21Duke0.6369761
22Texas A&M0.6365853
23UCLA0.6333862
24East Carolina0.6258761
25LSU0.6243972
26Arkansas0.6241844
27Louisville0.6193862
28Arizona0.6169761
29West Virginia0.5768862
30Stanford0.5747853
31California0.5708844
32North Carolina0.566844
33Missouri0.5639862
34Iowa0.5598752
35Florida0.5578633
36Colorado St.0.5458871
37Minnesota0.5439862
38Miami (FL)0.5412853
39Penn St.0.5339743
40UCF0.5334752
41Boise St.0.5228862
42Georgia Tech0.5169862
43Southern California0.5071853
44Ga. Southern0.5039862
45Memphis0.5031743
46Air Force0.5029752
47Boston College0.4961853
48South Ala.0.4922752
49South Carolina0.4876844
50Houston0.484743
51Washington0.4796853
52Northern Ill.0.4779862
53Pittsburgh0.4675844
54Oklahoma St.0.4593853
55Kentucky0.4584853
56Oregon St.0.4583743
57San Diego St.0.4553743
58Arkansas St.0.4461743
59Maryland0.4444853
60Virginia Tech0.4412844
61Rice0.4382743
62Rutgers0.4362853
63Texas St.0.4339743
64Temple0.4337743
65Virginia0.4325844
66Utah St.0.432853
67Western Mich.0.4246853
68UTEP0.4232743
69Louisiana Tech0.4214853
70Toledo0.4121853
71Cincinnati0.4025743
72Middle Tenn.0.4016853
73La.-Lafayette0.3976743
74BYU0.3969844
75North Carolina St.0.3955844
76San Jose St.0.3905734
77Michigan0.3861835
78Nevada0.3845853
79Texas0.38835
80Tennessee0.3788835
81Northwestern0.3745734
82UAB0.3716844
83Akron0.3592844
84Illinois0.3584844
85Navy0.3572844
86Central Mich.0.357954
87Indiana0.3557734
88Bowling Green0.3503853
89Appalachian St.0.3453725
90Texas Tech0.3377835
91La.-Monroe0.3354734
92Western Ky.0.332734
93Syracuse0.3282835
94Tulane0.3236725
95Kansas0.322725
96Charlotte0.3211835
97New Mexico0.3179725
98FIU0.3166835
99Purdue0.3166835
100Army0.3145725
101Buffalo0.3074835
102Ball St.0.3062835
103Iowa St.0.3054725
104Colorado0.3008826
105South Fla.0.2978835
106Fresno St.0.2921835
107Old Dominion0.2894835
108Fla. Atlantic0.2831835
109UConn0.2731716
110North Texas0.2724826
111Wyoming0.2719835
112UTSA0.2695826
113Southern Miss.0.2686835
114Hawaii0.268826
115Ohio0.2676945
116Idaho0.2668716
117New Mexico St.0.2653826
118Tulsa0.2599716
119Washington St.0.2597826
120Wake Forest0.2485826
121Vanderbilt0.2456826
122Eastern Mich.0.2279826
123Troy0.2277817
124UNLV0.2262826
125Georgia St.0.2226817
126Massachusetts0.2195927
127Kent St.0.2123817
128Miami (OH)0.2123927
129SMU0.1743707
Posted in Football | Tagged Arkansas Razorback Football, College Football, College Football Champion, College Football Champion Index, College Football Ranking

Article written by Sharp "Tusk" Williams

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.

Follow Sharp "Tusk" Williams on Twitter

Previous Entry: Wall of Shame — Georgia Game
Next Entry: Arkansas vs. Texas – Newspaper Accounts of All 77 Games
  • Retired Razorback Jerseys
  • Arkansas Razorback Logos
  • Contact Hog Database
  • What is Hog Database?

Copyright © 2005-2011 Hog Database.

Arkansas Razorback History, Stats, Records, News and Opinions